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The ability of APC to unite its different factions, especially after a contentious primary, might be key to ensuring a strong showing. As with most elections in Nigeria, factors including identity and zoning, insecurity, information disorder and growing impassivity among voters will play a major role in how the elections are conducted. Another major point to note is the relative anonymity of major political gladiators on both sides, besides Aiyedatiwa and Agboola. This is of course in relative comparison to Edo, where former Governor Adams Oshiomhole and outgoing Governor Godwin Obaseki were more associated with the race than the candidates of their different parties. In Ondo, both Aiyedatiwa and Agboola have been front and centre, but more so as the prominent faces of their parties and less so by their individual clout. This bucks the trend of strong individuals overshadowing party structures in previous elections and provides some possible clues for how the two establishment parties might fare when the generation of founding fathers departs the stage. This paper seeks to unpack the question of Ondo’s political leaning and the important factors that will make or mar the election result. It will also proffer nuanced background analysis, especially in reviewing recent political clashes and the different considerations across the different geopolitical zones. Finally, while it does not shy from the overwhelming prediction that our team received from different discussions, it seeks to situate potential reasons in the wider context of Nigeria’s political landscape.

This briefing note discusses the current trends and possible scenarios in the lead up to the 2015 general elections and emphasizes the need for improved voter education.

The year 2023 in Nigeria was marked by a series of elections. In February, there were presidential and legislative elections, followed by gubernatorial contests in March, supplementary contests in April, and three off-cycle governorship elections in November. These electoral events were influenced by various factors, ranging from identity politics to the challenges faced by electoral and security institutions. In the aftermath of the fiercely contested elections, both local and foreign stakeholders remain concerned about the country’s security and political landscape. The challenges anticipated for the new administration are considerable, and this report aims to shed light on the intricate interplay between insecurity and electoral processes, providing insights for stakeholders to navigate the complex issues at hand. Security challenges are pervasive across the entire country. In the North-Central, conflicts between pastoralists and farmers over resources have been prominent. In the South-South zone, persistent oil-related militancy remains a significant concern. Secessionist movements in the South-East continue to cause challenges to the state, while the North-West and North-East have continued to grapple with militant jihadist groups and the proliferation of communal militias and other non-state armed groups. Finally, the South-West has witnessed increased clashes between the regional community militia and other groups, ranging from pastoralists to other security outfits. Despite former President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration (2015 – 2023) having been elected largely on the promise of addressing insecurity, these challenges persist under his successor. In ensuring Nigeria’s peace and stability, this report identifies three emerging post-election challenges that underscore the critical need to address the drivers of political violence, indicative of state-society relations and their impact on elections. First, in response to security and legitimacy concerns in the lead-up to and the immediate aftermath of the 2023 elections, the Nigerian government must prioritise addressing concerns related to marginalisation and identity. These concerns have been prominent factors contributing to electoral violence observed in all four elections this year, posing a substantial risk of further unrest. Second, considering the enduring influence and political power wielded by incumbent leaders, it is imperative for the Nigerian government to adopt a comprehensive strategy to address and mitigate the risks associated with the abuse of power manifested in leaders’ involvement in politics. Finally, the government must address citizens’ concerns that politicians exploit judicial actions to secure office through the courts, which has continued to exacerbate conflict, especially in areas where elections are keenly contested.

Nigerians went to the polls for the third and final set of elections in 2023, with citizens in Bayelsa, Imo and Kogi electing state governors. These polls were conducted in the wake of contentious general elections that produced a new president, national legislators, and 28 state governors.

The 2015 general elections was shrouded in controversy over a power-sharing arrangement between groups bifurcated along ethnic, religious and regional lines. This took diverse dimensions at different levels of government.

The Bayelsa, Imo, and Kogi off-cycle elections are scheduled to take place on November 11, 2023. Off-cycle elections are held outside the general elections schedule due to circumstances such as death, resignation, impeachment, annulment of elections by courts, and many more. The forthcoming off-cycle elections in Bayelsa, Imo, and Kogi, which are scheduled to take place in the aftermath of the 2023 Nigerian general elections, hold a pivotal place in the country’s democratic process. These elections provide a unique opportunity for a swift evaluation of the new government’s performance so far and offer a referendum on how citizens in these states respond to the leadership of the recently elected administration. The outcomes of these contests will significantly impact the political fortunes of the parties involved and lay the foundation for the upcoming general elections in 2027. The 2023 Nigerian general elections marked an important milestone in the country’s democratic journey, characterized by technological advancements, increased civil society participation, and identity-based divisions among candidates and parties. These factors influenced the election results and set the stage for the off-cycle governorship elections in Bayelsa, Imo, and Kogi.

In the third and final general elections in West Africa this year, Liberians will go to the polls on 10 October 2023 to elect a president, 73 members of the House of Representatives and half of the thirty members of the Liberian Senate. These

Incumbent President Julius Maada of Sierra Leone Bio won the June 2023 presidential election with 56.2%, continuing a trend since 2002 where incumbents secure first-round wins. This margin just exceeded the 55% threshold for outright victory, substantially beating his main rival, Samura Kamara of the APC, by 15%. In parallel parliamentary and local council elections, the SLPP won 81 of 135 seats and controlled 12 of 22 districts. The APC contested these results, backed by international observers questioning credibility. The APC chose not to legally challenge but boycotted national and sub-national legislatures, demanding new elections after key resignations, including from the ECSL. Despite unlikely outcomes, this undermines Sierra Leone's democratic credibility. Across West Africa, military coups ousted elected leaders, and Senegal limited opposition. The 2023 Nigerian elections remain contested. Uncertainties about the June 27 results persist due to no legal challenges. The APC's non-participation hampers accountability, deepening ethno-regional divisions and eroding institutional independence perception, endangering legitimacy. Sierra Leone's peaceful power transfers since 2002 offer hope. Yet, a shrinking civic space challenges this. Sierra Leone's 2023 Freedom in the World index fell, reflecting reduced room for protest and criticism in 5 years.

Free and fair elections are the cornerstone of every democracy and the primary mechanism for exercising the principle of sovereignty of the people. Through such elections, citizens choose their leaders and participate in the governance of their country. By their choices, citizens confer legitimacy and authority on those who govern, making it easier for elected leaders to mobilize public support and cooperation for the implementation of development programmes. Free, fair, and credible elections are therefore a crucial prerequisite for good governance in any democracy.

For the first time in many electoral cycles, Nigerians were optimistic about the prospects of the 2023 general elections being credible. While there are various reasons behind this unusual optimism, the enactment of the Electoral Act 2022 stood out as a key factor. Its enactment increased the credibility ratings of the Independent National Electoral Commission(INEC) and the electoral process resulting in a record number of new voter registrations ahead of the elections. Arguably one of the most anticipated pieces of legislation in Nigeria's Fourth Republic, the Electoral Act 2022 was expected to enhance INEC's autonomy, both functionally and financially, and amplify the transparency of electoral proceedings. Yet, as the 2023 election cycle unfolded, it became clear that the Act wasn’t living up to these expectations and the broad-based optimism. Contrary to expectations, the Act's implementation did not translate to a higher voter turnout, seamless elections or a reduction in post-election litigation. Given this backdrop of high expectations juxtaposed against increased discontent, this paper delves into the Electoral Act 2022 and its influence on the 2023 elections.

The Buharimeter is an independent monitoring tool that enables Nigerians, scholars and political analysts around the globe to evaluate the implementation of the campaign promises of President Muhammad Buhari and his party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), made in the prelude to the 2015 general elections.

The 2023 general election will be a defining moment not just for Nigeria but also for West Africa. The region has suffered democratic decline and experienced coups and counter-coups in the past three years. However, beyond the hopes of the emergence of transformational leadership that will change the country's fate, there are existing challenges that threaten the conduct of free, fair, and credible elections in Nigeria. Nigeria's 2023 election will be the seventh to be conducted in the fourth republic. It will be unique for two reasons. First, it will not have an incumbent running. Second, the country has promulgated the 2022 Electoral Act, bringing new changes to election guidelines and regulations. However, the 2023 election is one that many analysts speculate will be fraught with severe challenges. Nigeria's six geopolitical zones are currently embroiled in different conflicts, ranging from farmer-herder clashes witnessed in all the zones to banditry and terrorist threats in the northwest and north-central and secessionist agitations in the southeast. These conflict situations are likely to deteriorate further with increased political violence that could affect the safety of election materials, personnel and even voters. In addition, the security situation could affect voter turnout – despite ongoing voter registration already surpassing 85 million registered voters - and even the legitimacy of the results.

This publication discusses several frequently asked questions regarding the 2019 Nigerian elections. On page 5 the following questions is discussed: What constitutes the 2019 general election? When is the election going to be held?

Increased Violence and Vote Buying Recorded in Governorship Elections

Nigeria is a Federal Republic composed of 36 states, with a population figure put at 193,392,517 (98,630,184, 51% males and; 94,762,333, 49% females) as at April 2018 by the National Population Commission (NPC) and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

Previewing Postponed Polls: Nigeria's State Elections holding on 18 March 2023

Nigeria’s next elected president will lead the country into celebrating 63 years as an independent nation on 1 October 2023. In that time, Nigerians have seen attempts at democracy interrupted three times, but democracy has been the system of

Nigeria’s next elected president will lead the country into celebrating 63 years as an independent nation on 1 October 2023. In that time, Nigerians have seen attempts at democracy interrupted three times, but democracy has been the system of

In the forthcoming governorship election in Ekiti State, what will define and shape the outcome of the result is going to be money, and incumbency (both at federal and state) might spice with a monopoly of violence.