Post-Election Statement on the 21 September 2024 Edo State Governorship Election - Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD-West Africa) Election Analysis Centre (EAC)

23 September 2024

Preamble

On Saturday, 21 September 2024, voters across the 18 Local Government Areas in Edo State cast their ballots in the off-cycle governorship elections. The Centre for Democracy and Development West Africa (CDD-West Africa), through its Election Analysis Centre (CDD-EAC), closely observed the conduct and outcome of the election process. The CDD-EAC deployed 70 trained and accredited observers, including “countering disinformation” monitors

Conduct of the Election

CDD-EAC observes the following positive aspects of the elections, which should be built upon by INEC in subsequent elections.

Minimal Violence

Despite the late start in several polling units, the voting process went on smoothly. Furthermore, notwithstanding the political tension, due mainly to the identity-driven rhetoric and disinformation that characterised the electioneering campaign, the voting process on Election Day was largely peaceful. Voters cast their ballots enthusiastically, without the fear of violence.

There were, however, incidents worth reporting that INEC should note of as part of its post-election review process. CDD-EAC Observers noted people voting without PVCs at Oredo Local Government, Ward 2; Ogiso Primary school Ogba III PU:029; Igueben Local Government, Ward 4, Utantan Primary School, Unit 4 and Idumeka Primary School ,007; and Esan Central Local Government, Ward 6, Akho Primary School 002, Irrua. The observers reported that names of some voters were not on the voters’ register and that there were several incidents of failed accreditation processes in Esan Central, Esan North-East, Etsako Central, Ikpoba/Okha, Owan East, Owan West and Ovia North-East Local Governments.

Performance of BVAS & the iRev Technology - Result Upload

CDD-EAC continues to note that BVAS machines were efficient in carrying out accreditation and were used in virtually all the polling units in a timely manner. In one incident, in Owan West, Ward 1, Ekweran Camp, Ozalla, there appeared to have been a consensus among party agents to allow someone to vote without his/her PVC, in violation of INEC’s guidelines. Where there was a BVAS malfunction, it was fixed within 30 minutes to an hour, except a case in Esan North-East, Ward 4, Unit 4 Code 4, where the BVAS malfunction was never fixed.

Another positive outcome of the elections was the timely upload of polling units results to the INEC Result Viewing Portal. By 3:30 p.m. on election day, CDD-EAC observers had recorded that 35.56% of the election results had been uploaded to the INEC Results Viewing Portal (IReV). By 6:00 p.m. on the same day, this figure had risen to 83.96%. By 2:00 a.m. on September 22, 2024, 98.07% of the results had been uploaded. However, there was a noticeable slowdown in the process following this point, with the upload rate reaching 98.61% by 11:39 a.m. on September 22, 2024.

Challenges & Disruption of Results Collation

Notwithstanding these commendable outcomes, the typical challenge of political actors attempting to disrupt the result collation process marred the conduct of the elections. Gunmen snatched a ballot box from a polling unit in Owan West during the Edo 2024 governorship election. The armed attack disrupted the voting process and it raised concerns about the security of the elections.

There was a report of the cancellation of voting because of violence in Ikoro Community, Units 5 and 15 of the Oghede Ward in Ovia North East LG. However, the collation officer at the point of announcing results noted that results were not cancelled. In Unit 5 specifically, Ikoro Primary School, the form EC 8A as uploaded on IREV has 1050 registered voters, but only 31 voters were accredited.

CDD-EAC notes with concern the reported visit to the State Collation Centre by the Edo State Governor, Godwin Obaseki, and the disruption of the collation process underway at Ikpoba Okha and Oredo Local Government Areas (LGAs) by some party members.

In view of the disruption, INEC should reappraise its crisis communication strategy. CDD-EAC notes that it took a long while after the suspension of the collation process before the reason for the suspension was announced to the public. These issues aggravated the post-election day security situation, such as reported protests in Ikpoba/Okha and Oredo, and the rumours and concerns of vote manipulation that flowed from it.

iRev-Specific Challenges

The CDD observed the upload of blurry results in: Ozolua Primary School II, Abumwenre, Okokhua ward/RA 09, Ovia North-East LGA. Furthermore, results from various polling units in Etsako East were observed as overvoting. In Weppa Registration Area, polling unit at Osholo primary school, Osholo.

INEC also uploaded a result where the votes recorded for the APC were higher than the accredited number of voters, with 213 accredited voters, but 352 votes for APC and 52 PDP in Weppa registration Area, Etsako East Local Government. Similar cases were also recorded as follows:

(a) in Okpella IV, Iddo Sabo registration area, where despite 250 voters being accredited, 263 were reported to have voted for APC and 97 for PDP;

(b) in Okpella IV ward 8, and the polling unit at open Space by Elite Secondary School, where despite the form recording 251 accredited voters, the APC polled 344 voters and the PDP recorded 41;

(c) in Okpella IV registration area, polling unit at Imioko qtr / Shade Imioshoga III, with 240 accredited voters, yet the APC had 488 votes accrued, PDP 11 in Shade Imioshoga I-

(d) in Okpella IV registration area, where the total number of accredited voters was 275, but the APC was recorded to have 377, PDP 53.

We note that the inconsistency of the reporting means we are unsure if it was over voting, poor data input or a combination of other factors.

Voter Behaviour & Voter Turnout

On Sunday, with all 18 local government results declared, the All Progressives Congress candidate was declared the winner and returned elected. However, we note some concerning details behind the numbers that have been declared. For example, voter turnout appears to be concerningly low, despite a high collection of PVCs. In Edo Central, despite 87% of PVCs having been collected, turnout is a paltry 25%. A similar trend obtains in Edo North, where despite 94% of PVCs having been collected, turnout is 33%. Even worse, in Edo South, despite 82% of PVCs having been collected, turnout was even worse at 17%. CDD strongly believes that these regrettable realities of poor voter turnout may not be unconnected to the huge deployment of uniformed personnel, high militarisation, and tough-talking police high command.

The number of rejected votes remained stable, averaging 2% in Edo Central, 1% in Edo North, and 3% in Edo South, but spiked to 5% in Edo South's Ovia South West. This highlights the need for improved voter education to reduce rejected votes in future elections.

Accredited voter percentages ranged from 23% to 37% across most Local Government Areas (LGAs). However, two areas stood out: Egor, where low accreditation (14.6%) closely matched voter turnout (14.5%), and in Igueben, where a significant discrepancy emerged, with 64.1% accredited voters but only 28% voter turnout. This discrepancy warrants investigation into potential barriers that prevented accredited voters from casting their ballots.

Preamble Results Declaration & Analysis

Following the final declaration of result, we note that, despite the collective expectation of a strong third-party performance, the race coalesced into a two-horse race between APC and PDP. Both parties passed the 25% threshold in every LGA and have currently divided LGA wins between themselves. This will lead to some analysis on the impact of third-party candidates and if the optimistic appeal of third-party candidates to the electorate, as recorded in the 2023 elections, was a flash in the pan or needs to be further studied. Pre-election analysis of a strong APC showing in Edo North appears to have determined the outcome with a 53,725 margin proving to be the game changer in the result owing to a narrow victory for PDP in Edo Central and an even slimmer temporary result in Edo South. The ability for parties and candidates to maintain strong and even engagement across the state remains the true bellwether in determining their election performance.

CDD notes heartily that all observers reported that votes were counted openly and that the final results were recorded in EC 8A form and summarily announced at the polling unit. This shows a continued adherence to the electoral processes. However, there was concern that in Esan West, Ikpoba/Okha, Orhionmwon, and Uhunmwonde Local Government Areas, there were instances where the results were not uploaded to IReV as a result of network issues and, in Ugbugo Town Hall, Hall 008, Ward 5 in Orhionmwon, there was a recorded disruption that led to the polling unit being momentarily abandoned.

Recommendations

Collation of results is a fundamental aspect of the electoral process, CDD therefore recommends that any controversy and/or loss of confidence in that regard should be resolved transparently and in a timely fashion before proceeding with final declarations. This particularly speaks to CDD’s observed inconsistencies in Ovia North East where incidences of blurred results, overvoting and disparity in result upload were reported by our observers.
Given the challenge posed by the downpour in parts of the state during the election, CDD-EAC recommends that INEC should work closely with NiMET in subsequent elections. This will ensure adequate arrangements for safe guarding paper-based election materials from rain. CDD-EAC recommends proper shelters instead of open spaces for the conduct of the process in future.
The centre recommends that the crisis communication apparatus of the electoral commission must be activated in periods of great need to avoid conflict in communication and dangerous public perception it may portend.
CDD notes the arrest of some people for vote buying and commends the vigilance of security agencies in this regard. CDD-EAC recommends the speedy and thorough investigation and trial of these cases.
INEC should publish the procedure for relocation of designated collation centers and other electoral facilities during an election.
INEC should carefully review uploads on iRev against the announced results and where there are discrepancies, take necessary remedial actions.

Conclusion

The CDD-EAC commends the citizens of Edo for their participation in the electoral process. From voting to the collation and counting of results, the electorate demonstrated commitment to a peaceful and credible election.

As the process transitions into the post-election phase, we urge all political stakeholders to continue upholding peace, respect the rule of law, and follow due process in resolving post-election disputes over the results of the elections. The Electoral Commission should also be alive to its responsibilities.

In light of the challenges posed by disinformation and information manipulation, CDD emphasises the importance of strengthening fact-checking initiatives. These initiatives should now focus on collaborating effectively to counter any post-election misinformation or false narratives that may arise.

We call for continuous efforts in voter education and media literacy campaigns. These are vital in equipping citizens with the necessary skills to critically assess and debunk false information during the aftermath of the election, fostering a more informed and resilient electorate.

Finally, as INEC prepares for the forthcoming off-cycle governorship elections in Ondo in November, 2024, we also call on all stakeholders to ensure a hitch-free exercise as we aim to further consolidate Nigeria’s democratic experience.

Signed:

Professor Adele Jinadu, Chair, CDD-EAC

For Media Enquiries, contact:

Mr. Armsfree Ajanaku

Media Engagement, Election Analysis Centre (CDD-EAC)

(+234 8086985104 | aajanaku@cddwestafrica.org)