Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD-West Africa) Election Analysis Centre (EAC) Preliminary Statement on the 21 September 2024 Edo State Governorship Election

 

Preamble

The Centre for Democracy and Development West Africa (CDD-West Africa), through its Election Analysis Centre (CDD-EAC), has been closely observing the September 21, 2024 Edo State Governorship election currently underway across the 18 Local Government Areas of the State. CDD-EAC deployed 70 trained and accredited observers, including countering disinformation monitors, who are collecting data on key aspects of the day’s voting and other key election processes. The objective of the CDD-EAC is to provide evidence-based analysis to ensure a free, fair and credible poll in Edo State.

Background to the Elections

The Edo State Governorship election is being conducted in the context of several major issues. The prevailing socio-economic challenges, including the rising cost of fuel and high inflation would no doubt make vote buying an appealing prospect for politicians. Another factor is the nature of the campaign, which was mostly driven by identity and zoning concerns. The election is also widely seen as a referendum on the records of different incumbent parties, namely Peoples’ Democratic Party – (PDP) in the state and the All Progressives Congress – (APC) in the federal government. Godwin Obaseki, PDP governor of Edo, and his predecessor, Adams Oshiomhole, who is a sitting APC senator, have also been embroiled in a battle for political supremacy through their proxy party’s candidates, with each determined that their preferred candidates must emerge victorious.

Leading the ‘third party’ charge is the Labour Party (LP), whose candidate in the 2023 presidential election, Peter Obi, won the Edo state vote. The Labour party is represented by Olumide Akpata, former NBA president. Finally, a lingering fear prior to the election wasthat “federal might” in the form of federal agencies like the police, would be deployed to counter the other parties. Among issues raised in this regard were the appointment of a Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC), who allegedly is related to the FCT Minister. Finally, there was the narrative of the perceived role of traditional institutions in the State in the election, particularly claims of  rift between the incumbent Governor and some traditional institutions.

The EAC expresses its worries that some of the candidates shunned political debates arranged for them to market their preparedness to govern the state, and to enable voters make a choice among the many candidates.  It is important to note that the idea of debates and speaking to the people via the media to communicate their plans and to canvas for votes, is important to democracy.

The heavy downpour reported in some parts of the state, and the reported prevention of people from coming to the PUs with umbrellas, may have affected turnout of voters. Another observation is the likelihood of rains damaging the paper based ballots used by INEC. 

General Environment of the Election

The CDD-EAC notes that of the Eighteen parties taking part in the elections, the ruling party of the state – the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) – declined to sign the peace accord organized by the National Peace Committee, which is aimed at ensuring that the election is peaceful. This is worrisome as it no doubt added to the heightened tension and concern ahead of the elections. CDD-EAC notes that INEC officials and security officials have sought to reassure citizens on their neutrality and preparedness.

CDD-EAC similarly notes that in the build-up to today’s governorship election, a number of consultations and strategy sessions involving INEC and the relevant security agencies were held under the Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES). These consultations were observed to have happened at both national and state level; added to this is the deployment of 35,000 police officers, and 6,433 NSCDC personnel, to the state. We hope that these measures contribute to the peaceful conduct of the election.

CDD-EAC observes that the election stakeholders were very active in the election, with 51% of our observers noting that polling units had three political party agents - referencing the strength of the frontrunners as identified in our pre-election report. Indeed, the election has been keenly contested by the political parties.

INEC Preparedness and Deployment

CDD-EAC’s observers report that in 42% of that the locations where we deployed, INEC officials did not arrive on time. At Emotan College (PUs 12/12/04/001 to 005), INEC officials arrived very late, with none of the polling units operational by 9:45am.

Another major concern was possible overcrowding of polling units, with 65% of our observers noting that the polling units they observed had between 501 - 1000 registered voters. This concern meant that officials in these polling units were overwhelmed and, coupled with the rains, this led to an expected low turnout at the commencement of polls. CDD-EAC also notes, with concern, that there were reports of voters not understanding where they were set to vote, especially in venues with multiple polling units. This was specifically noted in, Emotan College (PU 12/12/04-001 to 005) where several voters had to be redirected to different polling units. We encourage INEC to continue to decongest its polling units and to provide adequate information and signages at the polling units for voters.

 Election Logistics

The agreement between INEC and the NURTW aims to ensure smooth election logistics despite the fuel crisis​. In spite of a long existing agreement between INEC and the transport unions, there were reports of hitches, such as a driver in Ovia South-West Local Government area, who moved refused to move materials because he had not been paid. Such incidents raise concerns about transport arrangements between INEC and the transport unions. Perhaps as  a result, 76% of our observers noted that elections had not started as at 8:30am, with some even recording commencement times after 10am. We note that this might affect the enthusiasm of voters.

Our observers noted that the morning rains initially disrupted the election, especially in Oredo Local Government Area. Voters were particularly affected because of the decision of the Nigeria Police that umbrellas would not be allowed at polling units for fear that they could be used as “weapons” in any violence. CDD-EAC notes that before the election several weather forecasts pointed to the likelihood of showers. In future, INEC should take such forecasts seriously and make adequate arrangements at polling stations for shelter for its officials and voters. We think that the location of polling units in proper shelters is now overdue. 

Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS)

CDD-EAC notes heartily that 94% of our observers reported the presence of BVAS machines and 92% said that the machine showed 000 to indicate that no figures had been preloaded into the BVAS before accreditation. Although there were initial glitches in some observed polling units, when voting commenced, the process was reported by observers to have gone on smoothly and seamlessly.  In unit 234, Obe primary school Fuga, Etsako Central, the BVAS was not displayed at all by the Presiding Officer.

Attitude of Security Personnel

CDD-EAC observation indicates that the conduct of the process has been largely peaceful, with no reports of any widespread incidents of violence. CDD-EAC commends some of the key players who have acknowledged the peaceful conduct of the process.  However, on the police declared plan to deploy 3 personnel to 65 voters, it was observed that this target was not met. In PU 036, Ibewe Isan of Oredo LGA, about 1500 voters were catered for by only 3 police personnel. While the police were reported to be friendly, the military personnel were said to be very hostile, even to observers. 

Electoral Offences 

CDD-EAC notes with concern that there were extensive incidents of electoral offences carried out during the elections, which leads to worries about the integrity of the electoral process. While 88% of our observers noted that there were no campaigns near to or at the polling unit, those who reported electoral offences highlighted extensive vote trading and officials failing to carry out any corrective action.

In Edo Central, incidents of vote buying were observed in Orhionmwon Local Government Area, Ward 10, Polling Unit 014,  Esan Central, Ward 5, Unit 4 at Eguare Primary School, and Esan North East, Ward 5, Uromi, involving both the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the People's Democratic Party (PDP). It was observed the APC and PDP offered between 5000 to ₦10,000 in exchange for votes.  The same was observed in Esan West LGA, Ward 6 Central Primary School Iruekpen Ekpoma, PU: 004. Observers reported that this practice contributed to an increase in voter turnout as news of the financial incentives spread among the electorate. Ward 5, Polling unit 4- Awo primary school, account numbers of voters were collated after voting for a particular party.

In Edo South, incidents of vote buying were also reported at Oredo Local Government Area, Ward 12, Ibiwe/Iwegie/Ugbague at Ibiwe I, Oba Market, where PDP and Labour Party (LP) officials were particularly identified as having tried to induce voters. Of note was the attempt by some agents to engage with voters who spoke in Hausa in an attempt to engage the Hausa community in the area.

On a positive note, at approximately 10:00 am, suspected vote-buyers were apprehended in the Egor Local Government Area of the state. Officials from the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) subsequently removed the three individuals—two males and one female—from the scene. However, some local residents protested the arrests, claiming the suspects were being unfairly targeted. This led to a brief confrontation between the EFCC operatives and residents who attempted to obstruct the removal of the suspects. 

Disinformation and Information Manipulation

CDD’s Countering Disinformation War Room has been closely watching online and offline spaces with the objective of tracking and fact-checking fake news and misinformation. Our fact-checkers monitored a total of 35 claims in the pre-election period and on Election Day. All three major candidates were targets of false claims, which bordered on alleged withdrawal or disqualification from the governorship race.

Only 14% of the percent of the false claims peddled in the pre-election and on Election Day focused on key governance issues. Three percent of the false claims tracked by our fact-checkers pushed narratives that there was electoral violence.  A day before voting commenced, CDD War Room received a false claim via the Meedan tool stating that the Labour Party guber candidate, Olumide Akpata, had withdrawn from the governorship race. Peddlers of the disinformation also claimed he had declared support for the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Asue Ighodalo.

On the morning of the election, several fake images and videos circulated across social media platforms, particular WhatsApp. CDD Countering Disinformation War Room has also observed cases of old images being repurposed to spread false narratives about aspects of the electoral process. For example, the CDD War Room received an image with the claim that a thug associated with the PDP was arrested in Egor. The verification of the image by our fact checkers indicated it came from the arrest of a robbery suspect in Lagos as far back as 2022.

 

34% of all claims made on election day focused on the ruling party. 26% of the claims targeted the APC candidate, while 14% of the claims on Election Day focused on INEC. 11.5% of the claims explored the theme of vote buying, just as 8.6% focused on the APC-led Federal Government. This aligns with CDD findings in the pre-election period, which flagged suspicions about federal agencies as one of the features, which characterised the electoral environment. CDD War Room produced and disseminated several fact-checks to counter the various shades of information manipulation prevalent as voting got underway. We also collaborated with the Nigeria Fact Checkers Coalition to debunk viral cases of information manipulation before and during voting.   

Conclusion

CDD-EAC observers will continue to keep a close watch on the election up until voting ends, and counting and collation of results begin. Further updates on findings will be provided at the end of voting.

CDD commends voters in Edo for the calm and peaceful manner in which they have conducted all through this process so far. We similarly commend some political stakeholders who have acknowledged the peaceful nature of the electoral protest, just as we urge them to continue to promote peace and adherence to the rule of law and due process as the election, collation and declaration of results heads to the point of conclusion.   

-To mitigate the effect of disinformation, and information manipulation, CDD calls for strengthening of fact-checking initiatives, which will enable fact-checking organisations to work in synergy to counter false narratives during and after the election.

-CDD calls for robust voter education and media literacy campaigns, which will equip voters will the knowledge and skills to identify and debunk false information. 

Signed:

Professor Adele Jinadu, Chair, CDD-EAC