CDD Election Analysis Centre (CDD’s EAC) Pre-Election Press Statement on the 2024 Ondo State Governorship Election

 

CDD Election Analysis Centre (CDD’s EAC) Pre-Election Press Statement on the 2024 Ondo State Governorship Election

Friday, 15 November 2024 | FFA Resort – Alagbaka, Akure, Ondo State

The Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD-West Africa) welcomes you to the opening of its Election Analysis Centre (CDD-EAC) ahead of the 16 November 2024 Ondo State Governorship Election. This is the last off-cycle governorship election for the year and will likely mark the last under the current INEC leadership. It is another opportunity for the two million, fifty-three thousand and sixty-one (2,053,061) registered voters in the state to make their voices heard in electing the next state governor. While it is ordinarily hearty that 85.6% of these citizens have collected their permanent voters’ card (PVC), there is some concern that this will not translate into high enough turnout.

These elections will be shaped by different factors that we have actively documented through our pre-election background paper, A Tale of Two Deputies: Reviewing the Political Terrain of the 2024 Ondo Governorship Election, as well as an information assessment report and other published knowledge products on our website. Ahead of the election, we carried out a pre-election assessment trip that formed the basis of our published reports, as well as allowed us to carry focus group discussions and training of our recruited in-state deployment.

We have deployed 90 trained and accredited observers across all 18 local government areas, with our methodology targeting polling units with high volumes and prior history of election-related issues. We have also deployed 14 ‘soldiers of mouth’, who will help in addressing information disorder incidents, corroborate fact-checks and help us monitor the ways that parties, politicians and even members of the public engage in disinformation.

Finally, our EAC has been constituted here in Akure, with CDD staff ably represented and led by the director, Dr Dauda Garuba, and with our analysts, led once more by Professor Adele Jinadu. This is to ensure that our reports, analyses and feedback on the conduct of the election is as thorough and exhaustive as it has always been. CDD-West Africa will effectively monitor the Ondo election, closely observing the pre-election atmosphere as well as Election Day activities to evaluate adherence to national and international standards. Through impartial, timely reporting, CDD-West Africa aims to promote transparency and support an election outcome that genuinely reflects the will of the people.

As the election takes place tomorrow, CDD’s EAC notes some of the major issues that will shape the election and shares its worry that a possible outcome is low voter turnout and increased voter apathy. We hope that INEC’s voter sensitisation efforts, the different campaigns and the increased focus on the state will encourage citizens to come out and vote. We praise INEC’s conformity to its pre-determined schedule of events, and the release of necessary data and information prior to the election. Activities like this invite trust and optimism in the process. We call on INEC to ensure that this practice is maintained during the election and post-election phases. The absence of proper communication leaves room for unfettered misinformation, which has the capacity to cause untold disruption and mar analyses of the polls.

As mentioned earlier several factors have dominated our pre-election engagement and we note that if not properly addressed, they can lead to a less than desirable election process. In our usual fashion, we have dubbed these the eight I’s – Identity, Individuals, Incumbency, Intra-Party Relations, Institutions, Insecurity, Information Disorder and Impassivity.

IDENTITY

As with many parts of the country, identity remains a major factor in shaping elections. The two major candidates, from the incumbent All Progressives’ Congress (APC) and the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP), are from Ondo South which follows a pattern of alternating power. Previous governors include Adebayo Adefarati (North), Olusegun Agagu (South), Olusegun Mimiko (Central), Rotimi Akeredolu (North) and the incumbent Lucky Aiyedatiwa (South). This sentiment, while a means to ensure citizens do not feel marginalised by other groups, can be concerning as it focuses on area and less on the merit of the candidacy.

Turnout is almost commensurate with zonal interest in an election. In 2020, with the top three candidates hailing from the three different zones, we saw intense political activities across the state which translated to increase in voter turnout and election interest. With both APC’s Lucky Aiyedatiwa and PDP’s Agboola Ajayi coming from the south, it might lead to less interest in the other zones.

INDIVIDUALS

Elections are contested by parties, but the campaigns are waged and run by individuals. While the elections in Ondo are not as dominated by individuals to the extent that Edo was driven by the two most recent former governors, there are still key elements here that show that sentiments around certain politicians and individuals will play a role in how the election will be won or lost.

Looming large over these proceedings is the legacy of the late Governor Rotimi Akeredolu, who had chosen the two frontline candidates as his deputies during his two successful bids for governor. His demise led to a coterie of people claiming to be the heir of his legacy. After his succession by Aiyedatiwa, there have been reflections on how they appear to have been estranged towards the end of his life. The consideration on how the now governor was treated then seems to have played into sentiments in his support. Similarly, the way the PDP candidate was treated before leaving the APC and the deputy governorship have also been cited as reasons for some support.

INCUMBENCY

These elections, more so than previous contests, will truly test the popularity of APC at both state and federal level. For a state that President Bola Tinubu carried easily in 2023, his popularity might have waned owing to current harsh socio-economic situations nationwide. This was repeatedly cited during our research and there are valid worries that it might affect APC’s campaign. We note that the governor has been given leeway because of his relatively recent assumption of office. However, it should not be mistaken that this will be the overwhelming sentiment state-wide. It is also worth noting that the recent period in office as deputy governor, by the two ‘major’ candidates, makes this an insider contest as opposed to a contest with outsider influence.

INTRA-PARTY RELATIONS

The level of intra-party preparation for the elections have played a major role in how the campaigns have been waged. The governorship nomination of the Labour Party has been in doubt and mired in litigation, the national leadership of the PDP continues to be affected by in-fighting and even the APC primaries saw the need for effective reconciliation ahead of the polls. The need for citizens to feel a strong affinity for, leading to membership of, political parties is key in a structure that does not allow for independent candidacy.

INSTITUTIONS

Preparations for the elections have been coordinated by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). While our reports show that these duties have been carried out effectively, it is important that the organisation maintains proactive communication and makes ample arrangements for effective logistics.

INEC is not alone in the election architecture in Nigeria. Other agencies such as the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and the Independent and Corrupt Practices and other offences Commission (ICPC) also play a key role in ensuring that the election is conducted without the expected impact of vote trading. These organisations should deploy officers to check this practice, which is a sad reflection of our approach to civic matters and does not portend for a strong democracy.

INSECURITY

A security analysis of the Ondo elections reveals the existence of threat levels that cannot be ignored. The state has its own share of violent non-state actors, such as cult groups, political thugs, and criminal syndicates involved in kidnapping and armed robbery. In rural areas, the prospect for farmer-herder conflict is also a significant concern. When this challenge spills over into electoral periods, politicians allegedly arm the actors to intimidate opponents and suppress voter turnout in opposition strongholds.

The general security atmosphere leading to the election in Ondo State has been relatively peaceful, and that is attributed to the uncompetitive nature of the elections. Nevertheless, historical data on the general security trends and times of election cannot be ignored.  Although not as intense in this election, rivalry among political factions, cult clashes and ethnic contestations are present. The ready involvement of political thugs and gangs such as the notorious Ade Basket Boys in Akure complicates the problem. Respondents in the pre-assessment visit expressed fears of violence in Akure South, Owo, Idanre and Akoko South East.

INFORMATION DISORDER

In modern politics, information wins elections, and disorder within the information ecosystem—whether through disinformation, misinformation, or mal-information—presents a growing challenge. This manipulation of information to confuse voters or discredit opponents has been increasingly utilised by political actors. The Ondo 2024 election mirrors the national trend, with various forms of information disorder already shaping public perceptions and the political landscape.

Disinformation was a prominent feature in the Edo election when candidates were rumoured to have stepped down just a few hours before the elections and it remains central in Ondo as well. In the case of Ondo, candidates have weaponised information against each other, targeting not just their opponents, but also key institutions like the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). These attacks often exploit existing biases, fuelling division and distrust among the electorate.

IMPASSIVITY

Our overarching concern is that all of these factors will converge and affect how citizens engage with the elections. We have noted that turnout continues to go down in Nigerian elections.

While most governorship elections, especially off-cycle, outpace presidential elections in voter turnout, Ondo State appears to have established a strong correlation. In 2012, the governorship election turnout was 38.1%, a number that marginally rose to 38.8% in the 2015 presidential election, before dropping to 35.2% during the 2016 governorship election. The results during Buhari’s re-election as president in 2019 saw a 32.2% voter turnout, which marginally increased to 32.7% during Akeredolu’s re-election in 2020. Going by the 29.6% turnout during the 2023 presidential election, we might see the first sub-30% turnout in the Ondo governorship election history.

Voter apathy is dangerous for any democracy. It leads to a lack of accountability, increased disillusionment and can allow resentment and insecurity to fester. It also means that leaders are not aware of the type of mandate they have to carry out wide-reaching reforms. Efforts must be carried out to reverse the growing trend of citizens not wanting to engage with the democratic process.

CONCLUSION

As Nigerians in Ondo State go to the polls tomorrow, we urge all institutions connected to the electoral process, such as INEC and security agencies, to ensure that they are impartial and conduct a free, fair and credible process. To ensure disinformation, information manipulation, and all forms of computational propaganda do not undermine the participation of historically marginalised groups, CDD-EAC calls on fact-checking organisations to strengthen collaboration to achieve better results in countering disinformation. We have carried out extensive factchecks, under a project that has been well supported through the National Democratic Institute (NDI). 

To combat gendered disinformation and its debilitating effects on the participation of women, the CDD-EAC calls for initiatives, which directly counter misogynistic narratives targeting women in politics. This can include social media campaigns, public service announcements, and fact-checking reports that emphasise the contributions of women in leadership. The CDD-EAC also urges the implementation of voter education programs that challenge patriarchal norms, empower women in politics, and ensure that both men and women are protected from gendered disinformation.

The CDD-EAC also calls on all institutions – INEC, Police, EFCC, ICPC – to remain impartial and to carry out their duties diligently and patriotically. These services, though often thankless, remain important. We applaud the many ad-hoc staff, NYSC corp members and organisation personnel who are taking time out of their schedules to ensure that the process is hitch-free.

Finally, CDD-EAC calls on all citizens of Ondo State to head to the polls with a firm belief that democracy will triumph, just as it urges all political actors to eschew divisive and inciting tendencies capable of undermining peace before, during and after the election. CDD-EAC will continue to monitor engagements and provide as much support as needed to contribute to peaceful elections in Nigeria.

Signed

Prof. Adele Jinadu    Dr. Dauda Garuba

Chair, CDD Election Analysis Centre    Director, CDD-West Africa

 

 

For media enquiries, please contact Valeria Ogide (vogide@cddwestafrica.org or +2349014667218). Press statements are also available at www.cddwestafrica.org/press-releases and other reports cited and referenced are available at www.cddwestafrica.org. CDD-West Africa is available on social media platforms with the handle - CDDWestAfrica