CDD Election Analysis Centre (CDD’s EAC) Post-Election Press Statement on the Conduct of the 2024 Ondo State Governorship Election

18 November 2024

CDD Election Analysis Centre (CDD’s EAC) Final Statement on the Conduct of the 2024 Ondo State Governorship Election

Sunday, 17 November 2024 | FFA Resort – Alagbaka, Akure, Ondo State

Preamble

The Center for Democracy and Development concluded its observation mission to the Ondo state governorship election on Sunday, 17 November 2024, and hereby presents its key findings across the 18 Local Government Areas of the state. The CDD-EAC deployed 104 trained and accredited observers, including "14 countering disinformation" monitors, and subsequently issued two reports on the election process. The present report and the background briefing documents build on the two previous reports on the election process held on Saturday 16 November, 2024.

Background and General Observations

The Ondo State 2024 governorship election has been won and lost. The election was less competitive due to intense intra-party conflicts within the major political parties at both the state and federal levels. This also contributed to the low voter turnout, as citizens could easily predict the outcome and felt there needed to be more reason to vote when the results seemed less competitive. This is of concern because robust political participation, supported by equally strong political parties, is essential for strengthening democracy. Furthermore, recent socioeconomic concerns and limited candidate and party engagement with voters have contributed to increased voter apathy and an overall decline in the electorate's participation.

Election insecurity was of concern in the build up to the election. For example, on 13 November, armed thugs attacked members of a particular political party. In response to these threats, the Inspector-General of Police, Kayode Egbetokun, ordered the deployment of 22,239 police officers to Ondo State. This effort was complemented by the Nigerian Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC), which deployed 6,000 additional personnel. The military also stationed troops in border areas and other identified flashpoints to support law enforcement. To maintain impartiality and order, the Inspector-General banned local security outfits, including the Western Nigeria Security Network (Amotekun) and Vigilante Corps, from participating in election security. A restriction on vehicular movement was enforced from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. on election day, with exemptions for essential services. Military checkpoints were established throughout the state to enhance security. These measures, along with the prompt response to reported incidents, contributed to maintaining order during the election.

Conduct of the Election

The CDD-EAC acknowledges INEC's efforts in preparing for the elections, including training ad-hoc staff, deploying Registration Area Technical officers (RATECHs), and promptly distributing necessary logistics materials. These efforts were reflected in the prompt opening of polls statewide and the quick resolution of incidents affecting the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS). The CDD-EAC also notes a significant improvement in the functioning of BVAS. Similarly, the prompt deployment of security agencies on election duty is commendable. These positive aspects of the election process give hope for the future of elections in Ondo State.

Election Security

Our pre-election assessment report projected the likelihood of non-state actors, such as cult groups, political thugs, and criminal syndicates, disrupting the process. However, it is a vast relief that only a little of that projection played out in a manner that could undermine the process. However, a few violent incidents were reported, particularly in Idanre Local Government Area, where ballot boxes were reportedly snatched and gunshots were fired. Furthermore, isolated disruptions occurred in polling units at Ofosu and Omifunfun in Odigbo Local Government Area. Clashes between APC and PDP supporters led to chaos, with political thugs storming polling stations, forcing voters to flee for safety. In Ofosu, thugs reportedly fired gunshots into the air, creating panic and keeping many residents indoors. We are particularly delighted that the voter suppression incident earlier reported at Akoko North West, Oke Agbe Ward 3, Unit 17, did not degenerate into violence. In St. Joseph's CAC, Okedo Idanre LGA PU 005 Ward, voting was also temporarily halted when voters suddenly dispersed. INEC officials started packing materials upon hearing that thugs were on their way to snatch ballot boxes and cause trouble. The situation was contained, and normalcy was restored after security officials and youths in the area confronted the advancing thugs, chasing them away.

Vote Trading

A significant concern during the election was the prevalence of vote-buying, which occurred openly in some areas despite the presence of the officials from the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) at polling units, specifically, operatives of the DSS reportedly arrested a suspect with bags of money, apparently meant to buy votes. We call for all arrested suspects to be thoroughly investigated and held accountable before the law.

Election Technology

The CDD-EAC acknowledges the improvement in the deployment and use of technology, i.e. BVAS efficiency and IReV uploading. Our observers noted a 78.4% effectiveness of the use of BVAS. In the same vein, wherever a malfunction was experienced, technical intervention to restore functionality was observed to be timely. However, we reiterate our earlier concern that the BVAS machine failed to recognise registered voters in some locations, as earlier reported.

The CDD-EAC is also concerned about instances where form EC 60 E was not displayed at the polling unit, with 10.6% of our observers stating it was not shown. Furthermore, 15% of observers were not shown BVAS transmitting the result, and 1.2% of our observers noted that the machine had been moved outside the polling unit. These instances are concerning, especially with recent progress recorded on this front.

Disinformation and Information Manipulation

The CDD Countering Disinformation War Room watched online and offline spaces to track and fact-check fake news and misinformation. The numbers of false narratives, claims and counterclaims in the Ondo State Governorship election have been relatively low compared to other recent polls. In the campaign period and on Election Day, 16 claims were reported and fact-checked by CDD War Room. This is way lower than the 61 claims were reported during the same period in the Edo election, representing a 79% increase between the two elections. While 15 claims were assessed as either false or misleading, six were adjudged as false. The election management body and dominant party candidates were targets of false narratives in the pre-election period. On Election Day, the focus of peddlers of false narratives shifted to false claims about violence and the circulation of fake results. In a contest that was already male-dominated, the CDD-EAC is concerned about statements such as the alleged removal of the Resident Electoral Commissioner on the eve of the election.

Behaviour of Party Agents

The CDD-EAC notes, with disappointment, the low level of commitment to good conduct during the election, evidenced, for instance, in the uncivil conduct of party agents on election day. An example of such a disruptive incident was recorded in Isapien Ward 08, unit 19, where voting was inconclusive because some political party agents refused to allow APC agents to sign the vote result sheet. The bone of contention was that the APC agent was involved in alleged impersonation. The agent representing APC was a male, and the identity card on him allegedly belonged to a female. The passport on the identity document was also said to be that of a female. Such disruptions around the polling unit, resulting in verbal altercations and physical confrontations, held up the voting process and dissuaded voters who could not stand such disruptions while trying to exercise their franchise. In Akua 1, PU 001, Akungba Akoko, a CDD-EAC observer, reported that fighting broke out because voters were unwilling to maintain the required 30 metres away from the officials. Voting in the unit was said to have been delayed due to a dispute between the agents of the APC and the PDP.

Voter Turnout

The voter turnout of 24.8% is consistent with the projection of CDD's pre-election assessment report of less than 30% turnout despite the high PVC collection rate. The overall decline in participation in the electoral process compared to the last governorship poll of 2020 and the Presidential election of 2023 signals disenchantment on the part of the electorate. In Ondo Central, despite an 81% collection of PVCs and being the zone with the most significant registered voters, the election recorded a 19% turnout. In Ondo South, a 90% PVC collection rate resulted in a 26% voter turnout, while with an 87% PVC collection rate, Ondo North recorded the highest turnout with 31%. Pre-election fears of impassivity and voter apathy around the degenerating socioeconomic considerations have significantly affected the outcome. This does not suggest that electoral democracy is delivering the much-needed development in Nigeria.

The CDD-EAC also notes that the number of rejected votes was 1.6% in Ondo North, 2.3% in Ondo South and 3.2% in Ondo Central. These numbers, while low, reemphasise the need for improved voter education to further reduce rejected votes in future elections. Accredited voter percentages ranged from 17% to 37% across most Local Government Areas (LGAs). Voter turnout closely matched voter accreditation across all local governments and does not appear to show any disparity.

Final Election Results

The final result of INEC shows that the race coalesced into a two-horse race between the APC and PDP. The APC was declared the winner in all 18 local governments, with commanding margins in Owo, Akoko South-West, Ilaje, and Akoko North-East, beating the PDP candidate by over 20,000 votes. The PDP candidate could only achieve a 25% threshold in 18 local government areas.

It is worth noting that identity and zoning played a vital role in the election outcome. Ondo Central, the zone with the most registered voters, had low voter turnout, which some focus group discussants attributed to the expectation of an incumbent victory and the absence of a candidate on the ballot. Ondo North, which came out emphatically for the APC, is believed to have done so because of the party's deputy governorship nominee, who is from their zone. A sense of retribution against the PDP nominee, who contested against Governor Akeredolu in 2020, might have been a critical factor as Akeredolu is from the North.

Conclusion and Recommendation

The CDD-EAC commends the citizens of Ondo state for their participation in the electoral process. The electorate demonstrated commitment to a peaceful and credible process from voting to collating and counting results.

The CDD-EAC notices a remarkable level of compliance and adherence to electoral processes. However, comparing data on registered voters published by INEC before the election and those declared by returning officers during result collation, CDD-EAC observed discrepancies in seven of the 18 LGAs in the state. The table below presents the different numbers and the differences.

LOCAL GOVERNMENT	PRE-ELECTION	COLLATION	DIFFERENCE
Akure North	87,593	87,293	-300
Akure South	314,710	314,709	-1
Ondo East	57,175	52,274	-4,901
Akoko North-West	84,901	84,908	+7
Akoko South-West	112,027	116,368	+4,341
Ilaje	147,208	146,146	-1,062
Ile-Oluji/Oke Igbo	81,964	81,954	-10
DIFFERENCE			-1,926

While we note that the margins would not have affected the overall result, election-related details and data must be beyond scrutiny and not subject to arbitrary changes. We recommend that INEC explain these discrepancies and assure Nigerians about the sacrosanct nature of election-related data.

As the process transitions into the post-election phase, we urge all political stakeholders to continue upholding peace, respect the rule of law, and follow due process in resolving any possible post-election disputes. Given the large-scale vote buying witnessed in the election, the CDD-EAC believes now is the time for proactive and tough measures to confront the anomaly of political actors commodifying votes and making the democratic process a transactional affair. To this end, the CDD-EAC calls for a speedy and transparent trial of perpetrators caught trying to compromise the sanctity of the electoral process by offering cash for votes.

Although compared to Edo, the incidence of peddling false narratives with the intent of deceiving voters was less prevalent in the Ondo governorship polls, the need for media and digital literacy efforts remains critical. The CDD-EAC, therefore, emphasises the importance of strengthening fact-checking initiatives to counter disinformation. These initiatives should now focus on fostering collaboration at the subnational and national levels to effectively counter any post-election misinformation or disinformation.

Finally, as INEC reviews the conduct of the 2024 off-cycle elections and long-term preparation begins for the Anambra 2025 governorship elections, we call on all citizens to remain active participants in Nigeria's civic process and remain committed to developing the country's democracy. Even with the modest gains recorded in the recent off-cycle elections, all critical stakeholders cannot afford to rest on their oars. It is hoped that future elections will be peaceful and show progress in Nigeria's march towards a more representative, free and fair democracy.

Prof. Victor Adetula Dr. Dauda Garuba

Lead, CDD-EAC Observation Mission Ondo 2024 Director, CDD-West Africa

For media enquiries, please contact Valeria Ogide (vogide@cddwestafrica.org or +2349014667218). Press statements are also available at www.cddwestafrica.org/press-releases, and other reports cited and referenced are available at www.cddwestafrica.org. CDD-West Africa is available on social media platforms with the handle CDDWestAfrica.