CDD-EAC Pre-Election Statement for the September 21, 2024 Edo State Governorship Election

PRESS STATEMENT

Friday 20 September, 2024

CDD-EAC Pre-Election Statement for the September 21, 2024 Edo State Governorship Election.

• INTRODUCTION

As poll officials, security operatives and voters in Edo State make final preparations for the conduct of the September 21, 2024 Edo State Governorship election, the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD-West Africa) has deployed 70 accredited, trained and non-partisan observers to closely follow and report on key Election Day processes. The deployment includes, the Soldiers of Mouth, a group of trained disinformation monitors, who will help CDD Election Analysis Centre (EAC) observe and document on and offline misinformation trending before, during and after Election Day. CDD-EAC will be led by renowned political scientist and electoral reform advocate, Professor Adele Jinadu. He will be supported by other election subject matter experts, while the Centre’s staff will serve as data clerks to relay information from our observers in the field to the analysts and technical drafting group. 

In this pre-election statement, what follows is a summary of key findings in the pre-election period and major trends, which will shape the conduct and outcome of this off-cycle governorship election. The EAC will publish its final report on the conduct and outcome of the elections on the CDD website after voting at the weekend. This statement is set in the broader context of the economic, political and sociocultural environment, which not only frames but continues to pose challenges for the country’s competitive party and electoral politics. 

Being the fourth off cycle governorship election, since the keenly contested and heavily disputed 2023 general elections, CDD through its EAC will be watching out for significant improvements in the conduct of the poll as a mark of confidence as momentum steadily gathers towards the historic general elections slated for 2027. Major features of the pre-election environment in Edo State include the role of intra- and inter-party rivalries. This has manifested in the heightened political tension, charged rhetoric and the claims and counterclaims of the various partisan camps. A number of these exchanges border on disinformation peddled with the intent of winning the partisan advantage. 

• Political Trends: A Bellwether election

Edo remains a key state in Nigeria's electoral calendar, serving as a bellwether state due to its ability to buck trends and serve as a litmus test for the different sides of Nigeria's political landscape. The upcoming elections, arguably the most competitive polls since the 2023 general elections, will further add to this record. To keep a close tab on how these trends shape the electoral process, CDD has engaged 70 observers, focusing on election processes and information disorder across all 18 local governments of the state, to provide first-hand and direct feedback on the conduct of the elections and the information landscape. In our recently released background paper, the qualitative data pointed at Edo State’s political history, recent trends, and key themes around identity and perception of governance as some of the issues, which will shape voting patterns. Other issues, which came to the fore in our pre-election assessment are the legacy of the incumbent government, concerns around federal might being deployed, insecurity, zoning and ethnicity, and a continued fixation of individuals over party in the state. The pre-election environment has also been characterized by concerns over the non-signing of the peace accord by one of the leading political parties. 

In terms of the candidates, Asue Ighodalo, a lawyer and businessman, is the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) nominee. Ighodalo’s nomination appears to have been at the heart of the rift between Obaseki and his deputy, Philip Shaibu, who was twice elected as deputy governor and sought to succeed his boss, but has since been impeached. Although a Federal High Court in Abuja later declared the impeachment null, the state government has refused to acknowledge him in this post, and he has defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC). 

The APC will be represented by Monday Okpebholo, a first term senator who will be seeking to help the party regain a state house they lost in 2020 election. Olumide Akpata, the former president of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA), is the nominee of the Labour Party (LP), which will seek to leverage the impressive showing of their presidential nominee in the 2023 general elections. All three candidates are relatively new to elective politics – Akpata and Ighodalo have not contested for office before and Okpebholo was only elected to the senate last year. This, alongside the expected impact of their various political patrons and rumoured ‘godfathers’, will expectedly play a role in the election and the subsequent outcome. 

• Disinformation And Information Manipulation 

The pre-election period in Edo State has been marked by noticeable trends, including tactical means to undermine rival opponents, verbal attacks aimed at undermining the participation of women, and the targeting of less dominant political parties with narratives, which weaken their ability to have their voices heard in the electoral process. As evident in the close analysis of the fact-checks produced by the CDD War Room, these trends have combined to undermine the integrity of the information space. 

Diverse insights and perspectives have been gleaned from the information environment assessment carried out in the state ahead of the September 21 election. These trends encompass a range of strategies, being deployed by the peddlers of disinformation to have their vice-like grip over the information ecosystem. Their strategies are aimed at influencing public perception, undermining political stakeholders on the opposing sides of the partisan divide, and in other cases, sowing distrust in the electoral process.

Several claims checked by the CDD Countering Information Manipulation War Room targeted political stakeholders and government institutions. For instance, one of the dominant narratives in the pre-election period was the allegation, which emerged that Governor Obaseki had taken the Oba of Benin to court. The peddlers of this piece of disinformation leveraged it as an attempt to stir cultural tensions, knowing that the personality of the Oba of Benin, is highly revered, both as a traditional and spiritual leader of the Benin Kingdom, Edo South Senatorial Zone which accounts for 46% of the votes cast in the state in the February 2023 presidential election. By peddling the claim that the sitting governor was disrespecting a hallowed traditional institution, the narrative found a typical entry point for political expediency and brinkmanship. 

The likely desired outcome of the information manipulation campaign is the voting backlash against the political party of the governor. While there is truth to some ongoing legal disputes, the claims exploited cultural sensitivities for political gain. 

Disinformation also extended to accusations about lack of transparency and accountability in public resource mismanagement. A claim in this mold circulated first online and later offline, to the effect that Governor Obaseki re-bagged rice provided by the Federal Government for public distribution as palliatives and presented the items as they originated from the Edo State government. Although rice deliveries were confirmed, the lack of concrete evidence regarding re-bagging left the claim unverified. The disinformation created space for distrust in the governor’s handling of public resources and fed into the perception of alleged corruption and widespread governance failure.

• Gendered Disinformation 

The build up to the election itself has exposed subtle forms of gendered disinformation as tracked by CDD-West Africa’s information assessment, conducted with support of the National Democratic Institute (NDI). Notwithstanding the fact that the participation of women as candidates in the September 21, 2024 Edo State governorship election has been low, the attempts to undermine women’s participation have remained rife. From verbal attacks to misogynistic remarks, some political actors in the already men-dominated political terrain have been having a field day hurling abuses and insults at women trying to get their voices heard in the political process, even if from a disadvantaged position. 

CDD-West Africa’s information assessment documented one of such moments of gendered disinformation in the exchange between former Governor (now Senator) Adams Aliyu Oshiomhole and the wife of the Edo State Governor, Mrs. Betsy Obaseki. Oshiomhole sparked outrage after describing the Edo State First Lady as being childless. Describing a woman as childless in the Nigerian and African cultural context is pejorative and suggests the woman, so described should not be involved in the political process, but rather should be at home trying to find solution to the alleged lack of children. Given the cultural sensitivity of the issue, former Governor’s controversial statement rightly sparked moral outrage.

Similarly, female political figures, especially those in leadership positions, have been targeted with narratives aimed at undermining their credibility. An instance is the viral claim, which again focused on the Edo governor’s wife, Betsy Obaseki, where she was said to be involved in the sale of prepaid meters, a legal initiative confirmed to be true, but negatively framed to question her integrity and motives as a woman in power. This pattern comes across as a deliberate attempt to discourage women’s participation in politics and leadership, reinforcing harmful gender stereotypes, constraining entry into the space, and continuing the domination of the political space by men to the detriment of women.

• Conclusion And Recommendations

As Edo people go to the poll to elect their governor come Saturday, September 21, 2024, CDD-West Africa urges all institutions connected to the electoral process, such as INEC and security agencies, to ensure that they are impartial and conduct a free, fair and credible process. To ensure disinformation, information manipulation, and all forms of computational propaganda do not undermine the participation of historically marginalized groups, CDD-West Africa calls on fact-checking organizations to strengthen collaboration to achieve better results in countering disinformation.

To combat gendered disinformation and its debilitating effects on the participation of women, CDD-EAC calls for initiatives, which directly counter misogynistic narratives targeting women in politics. This can include social media campaigns, public service announcements, and fact-checking reports that emphasize the contributions of women in leadership. CDD-EAC also urges the implementation of voter education programs that challenge patriarchal norms, empower women in politics, and ensure that both men and women are protected from gendered disinformation. Finally, CDD-EAC calls on all citizens of Edo State to head to the polls with a firm belief that democracy will triumph, just as it urges all political actors to eschew divisive and inciting rhetoric capable of undermining peace before, during and after the election. CDD-EAC will continue to monitor engagements and provide as much support as needed to contribute to peaceful elections in Nigeria.

Signed:

Dauda Garuba, PhD

Director, CDD-West Africa.