Why INEC Must Start Early to Rebuild Trust Before the 2027 General Election

Since the end of military rule and Nigeria’s return to a democratic system of government in 1999, the nation has only experienced an increase in voter turnout during a general election once. This happened under former President Olusegun Obasanjo when the voter turnout increased from 52.3% in 1999 to 69% in 2003. Official records show that since 2003, the nation has consistently faced a significant decline in voter turnout. According to official records by the nation’s electoral body, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), voter turnout was 57.5% in 2007, 53.7% in 2011, 43.7% in 2015 and 34.8% in 2019. Remarkably, the number plummeted to an all-time low of 28.63% in 2023.

This trend has continued to be a major source of worry and concern for well-meaning Nigerians. The election data revealed that only 25,286,616 – about 28.63%– of all eligible voters in Nigeria participated in the 2023 Presidential election. This is despite that in the 2023 general election out of 93,469,008 registered voters, 87,209,007 collected their Permanent Voter Card collection (PVC) making a total of 93.3%. While this consistent decline is troubling, it already raises concerns about the state of affairs in the coming general elections of 2027. The repugnant anomalies witnessed during the 2023 presidential election have left lasting scars which can potentially lead many Nigerians to disengage from future electoral processes.

INEC’s Promises and Failure

The Independent National Electoral Commission introduced the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) in 2021 and the Results Viewing Portal (IReV) in 2020 as its two major innovations aimed at electoral transparency. These innovations were tested in previous elections such as Isoko South Constituency 1 by-election in Delta State on 10 September 2021 and in Anambra, Ekiti and Osun off-cycle gubernatorial elections. The successes recorded inspired hope and confidence. As such, the consistent promise by INEC to deploy these technologies in the 2023 general election raised high expectations of electoral and the commission was able to secure the confidence of the various political parties and their candidates, the media, civil society organizations (CSOs), security agencies and the international community. For some, it was the believe that the BVAS and IReV will work was the reason the high voter registration and PVC collection.

It will be recalled that with the signing of the Electoral Act 2022, INEC had what it took to conduct a transparent, free, and fair election. On February 7, 2023, the Chairman of INEC, Prof Mahmood Yakubu stated in the commission’s official media handle, @inecnigeria, that “let me once again reassure Nigerians that there is no going back on deployment of BVAS for voter accreditation.” Then he added, “There is no going back on the transmission of results to the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV) in real-time on Election Day.” The INEC Chairman had on October 26, 2022, made similar promises. Judging from the above, the commission expressly averred that the use of IReV was crucial to holding a transparent, free and fair election. This was also important because of the growing apathy rocking the nation at the time.

Following this assurance, many Nigerians, who had earlier given up, geared up for the election. Among others, a report by socioeconomic research firm, SBM Intelligence revealed that 43% of Nigerians eligible to vote in the 2023 general elections were first-time voters, youth who were pregnant with hopes of a transparent, free, and fair election that would be electronically transmitted from the polling units to the Results Viewing Portal (IReV) for the world to monitor in real-time.

However, the rude shock came on Election Day when the commission abruptly abandoned its promises by failing to use these technologies optimally, on the premise that they suddenly developed faults. This action by INEC, which symbolizes betrayal, has dented the little hope that many Nigerians still had in the election process – and you wonder, how can Nigerians trust the INEC to hold another general election?

Massive Voter Apathy Looms in 2027

In its post-election report, INEC said the 2023 presidential results failed to upload and instead “returned an HTTP server error response,” claiming that it was fair and credible. Since the conclusion of the 2023 Presidential election, many have been vociferous about their stance on future elections in Nigeria. The impact of INEC’s failed promises was largely felt in the 2024 Edo and Ondo Governorship elections which witnessed poor voter turnout. In Ondo, only 24.8% of registered voters voted while in Edo, it was 24.49% voter turnout.

An analysis of Social Media commentaries shows the deep rooted nature of the distrust in INEC at the moment. For instance, on September 24, 2024, @Sylver_Joe in a post on X, wrote “Without overhauling of INEC, I will never vote in Nigeria again... OGA CAN GET ANY STATE HE WANTS...” On October 17, 2024, @Diamondifemi posted “I won't vote again in Nigeria!!! Elections won't and will never bring any positive change in Nigeria as long as electoral umpires aren’t going to be on the side of the masses. Judiciary? Those one are even worse..” On September 4, 2024, @Vinlaw72 posted “I have said it, I will never vote in Nigeria again because the electorate voice don't count. All the INEC & The Politician does is SELECTION BY APPOINTMENT”. Similarly, on September 22, 2024, @iam_kinglambo extended his vow to his entire household when he posted “My household and I will never vote in Nigeria again. We don wash our hands comot”. It can also be seen on X that on February 3, 2025, @slimudoh posted “Me no vote again in Nigeria. if no major reforms on @inecnigeria and proof that votes actually count. I will never vote in Nigeria again. if na devil won rule make he rule”. More so, on Sept 16, 2024, @cwrackerj while replying to @ShehuSani, wrote “I get pvc and I will not vote in this stupid election you guys are doing in this country come and fine. My first time of voting was my last... I'm not never gonna vote again because Nigeria will never be good”.

The EU Observers in their report shared the sentiments of Nigerians when they said Nigeria’s 2023 election eroded voters’ trust. “Shortcomings in law and electoral administration hindered the conduct of well-run and inclusive elections and damaged trust in INEC”. “A lack of transparency and operational failures reduced trust in the process and challenged the right to vote.”

A probe into the reason for this unpatriotic decision by these Nigerians reveals that their decision not to vote in future elections has nothing to do with the outcome of the election. Rather, it was because INEC receded on its promises to deploy the IReV. INEC repeatedly promised to deploy the IReV but receded on Election Day. It was Mouloud Benzadi, an Anglo-Algerian author, translator and researcher based in the United Kingdom who said, “Trust is like an antique, once it’s broken, it can never be replaced”. Kathleen Sebelius, an American politician noted that “The essence of good government is trust.” On his part, Henry Clay, who was an American lawyer and statesman averred that “Government is trust and the officers of that government are trustees. And both the trust and trustees are created for the benefit of the people.” For a nation that was already witnessing a retrogressive growth in voter turnout, INEC’s betrayal, or what some described as playing on the intelligence of Nigerians after giving them false hope will certainly have costly and dire implications for future elections. The issues that emanated from the 2023 election were compounded by the revelation from the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics that judges took more bribes in 2023 – making Nigerians lose trust in the judicial system regarded as the last hope of the common man.

The Way Forward

Be that as it may, 2027 will offer Nigerians another chance to choose their leaders – and with the growing voter apathy, it has become increasingly expedient to overhaul the electoral system. This should be accompanied by laws that mandate the use of IReV and the deployment of BVAS. The INEC must be allowed to play its role as an independent body and not a tool in the hands of the government of the day. It is good that the Independent National Electoral Commission announced plans to seek an amendment to the Electoral Act 2022 to clarify issues surrounding result management, particularly the manual transfer and electronic transmission of election results. “Among the major highlights of the commission’s recommendations is the imperative of legal clarity in result management with regard to manual transfer versus the electronic transmission of results,” Yakubu said. If implemented, this could serve as a panacea to the issue of transmitting results from the polling units.

Also, the recommendation of the EU to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to improve in six priority areas, including removing ambiguities in electoral law, ensuring the real-time publication of and access to election results and clamping down on electoral offences should be a thing of priority. In addition, civil society organizations, the media, security agencies, and the international community must see it as a point of duty to ensure that INEC conducts a free, fair, and transparent election using the required technology. Ultimately, Nigerians must rise up with one voice and singleness of purpose demanding a better electoral system that truly represents and reflects their will.

Stanley Ugagbe is a seasoned journalist with a passion for exposing social issues and advocating for justice. With years of experience in the media industry, he has written extensively on governance, human rights, and societal challenges, crafting powerful narratives that inspire change.