Who you 'Ghana' vote for?
West Africa’s elections in 2024 have been bookended by two of its more stable and reliable democracies: Senegal on 24 March and Ghana slated for 7 December. These elections hold a particular significance for a region with more relative instability caused by a recent push towards authoritarianism and military rule. Yet, despite prevailing trends, Senegal was able to showcase the resilience of its democracy and return an opposition candidate in the face of an incumbent abusing power. As Ghanaians prepare to elect a new president, the hope is that the region will conclude this challenging year for democracy on a positive note.
Ghana’s status as West Africa’s pre-eminent democracy is supported by empirical findings. In the recently released Ibrahim Index for African Governance (IIAG), the country was ranked 7th on the continent and only second behind Cape Verde in the region. The report’s summary findings noted that progress has been made in public administration, education, infrastructure, health, and business and labour environment. Ghana has long been a hub for the region, and the continent, owing to its history and pedigree. But it has not been immune to a growing wave of citizens questioning the dividends of democracy. The same report cites that the rule of law and justice, as well as security and safety, are areas in which Ghana has performed poorly. There are also low scores in sustainable use of land and forests, and biodiversity protection. These factors, among others, are expected to play a key role in the election as Ghanaians go to the polls to choose their next leader.
A COMPLEX LANDSCAPE
As the country approaches its ninth consecutive election since the return to constitutional rule in 1992, 13 aspirants – from nine political parties and four independent candidacies – were officially cleared to contest for the poll. Voting will take place across 40,975 polling stations which include both main and special polling stations, with 18,772,221 registered voters expected to participate in the election. In comparison, the 2020 election featured 12 political parties, 17,027,941 registered voters, and the same 40,975 polling stations.
The outcome of the 2020 elections, where the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) rejected the results and pursued a legal challenge, underscores a troubling erosion of trust in Ghana’s Electoral Commission. Throughout the election season, the NDC accused the Commission of operating as an extension of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP), ultimately leading the party to challenge the results in court. Similarly, before the NPP’s victory in 2016, it leveled comparable accusations against the Commission’s leadership, which had been appointed by an NDC government. In both instances, the opposition’s distrust was fuelled by the perception that the Commission’s leadership was aligned with the ruling party, undermining the institution’s credibility and independence.
A TENUOUS PENDULUM SWING
With the return to multiparty democracy in 1992, power has largely rotated between the ruling NPP and the NDC. NPP’s Jerry Rawlings served two terms before NPP’s John Kufour replaced him. In 2008, NDC’s John Atta Mills ascended to the presidency, before he died in office and was succeeded by his vice-president, John Mahama, ahead of the 2012 elections. In 2016, Nana Akufo-Addo defeated Mahama’s bid for re-election and will leave office after being term-limited.
If the election pattern is not disrupted, John Dramani Mahama and the NDC should be preparing to assume power. But the elections may not be as straightforward as expected. After allegations of electoral misconduct and fears over mismanagement in 2020, a lot remains to be seen in terms of how Ghanaians turn out for the polls. There is also the question of how much other candidates affect the vote share of the two main parties. Alan Kyerematen holds particular significance in this election as a founding member of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) who left after losing the party’s primary to Mahamudu Bawumia and chose to run as an independent candidate.
Vice-President Bawumia will be seen as the continuity candidate and will bear the support, or brunt, of the incumbent government. However, there has been a decline in support from Muslim voters, a crucial demographic for his campaign, losing nearly 4% since July 2024. A predecessor of his, Mahama, is in the interesting position of being the change candidate, after eight years out of office. Both men will appeal to different blocs of the country but are likely to represent an entrenched elite simply maintaining power because of the strength and reach of their parties. NDC might be a beneficiary of anti-NPP sentiments, more so than actual NDC momentum.
GALAMSEY
A major topic will be the recent protests/strikes in Ghana against illegal mining, known locally as Galamsey. The demonstrations, which saw thousands of Ghanaians take to the streets to demand an end to the environmental degradation Galamsey caused, have brought environmental and governance issues to the forefront of the national discourse.
Galamsey has polluted water, causing health issues like kidney failure and cancer, and devastated 4,726 hectares in 34 forest reserves. It has also heavily impacted cocoa production, reducing national output to less than 55% of its seasonal yield, with over 100,000 acres lost in Mankurom alone. Public demand for action is rising, making environmental policy a key election issue.
Only three candidates for president have significantly addressed the issue of illegal mining in their campaigns. Mahama advocates a community-centered approach, highlighting collaboration with local chiefs and stakeholders as the primary means to combat illegal mining in Ghana for a sustainable, people-centered solution. In contrast, Bawumia emphasizes a technologically driven strategy, proposing drones and tracking systems to monitor mining activities in real time, which shows his focus on an innovation-based approach to enforcement. Kyerematen’s plan differs further by calling for a one-year temporary ban on small-scale mining, paired with the demobilization of equipment under military supervision, aiming for a decisive reset of the mining sector and a long-term restructuring.
In addition to political candidates, civil society organizations and labour unions have played a significant role in shaping the discourse around illegal mining. The Catholic Church and labour unions have called for further protests, underscoring the importance of grassroots mobilization in holding the government accountable. The engagement of these non-political actors could influence voter turnout and create additional pressure on candidates to present credible solutions.
NEIGHBOURING TRAVAILS
Ghana’s geopolitical position places it at the heart of the West African coast, bordering Burkina Faso to the north, Côte d’Ivoire to the west, and Togo to the east. The proximity to these nations, all of which are grappling with varying degrees of conflict and insecurity, presents challenges to election logistics, voter turnout, and the general conduct of the election.
The once-stable relationship between Ghana and Burkina Faso has deteriorated sharply due to escalating insecurity in the Sahel and shifting political dynamics across West Africa. In December 2022, President Nana Akufo-Addo publicly warned of Russian mercenaries operating close to Ghana’s northern border, alleging that Burkina Faso had granted mining concessions as payment for Wagner’s support. This accusation led to a diplomatic rift, with Burkina Faso recalling its ambassador and reducing ties with Ghana. The situation is especially troubling given the lack of coordinated security measures between the two nations, despite the growing presence of extremist groups linked to Al-Qaeda and ISIS along their shared border.
The fear of violence, whether from insurgent groups or as a consequence of the ongoing refugee crisis, could lead to voter displacement in northern regions, creating logistical challenges for the election. Communities along the border with Burkina Faso have also experienced disputes. These cross-border tribal dynamics could escalate tensions during the election, potentially impacting voter participation and heightening security risks in the northern border regions.
AN ECONOMIC MELTDOWN
Ghana’s economic fragility adds another layer of complexity to the electoral landscape with rising inflation, public debt, and dependence on international aid from institutions like the IMF. Recent Afrobarometer data underscored that many Ghanaians are frustrated with their government’s handling of economic issues, such as inflation and unemployment. This economic discontent reflects a widespread dissatisfaction that could affect the support base of Ghana’s major political parties, particularly as voters look to leadership that can address these economic challenges. Moreover, as Ghana navigates its economic recovery, the strain on its northern regions caused by the influx of refugees and heightened security concerns could exacerbate socio-economic disparities, further alienating northern voters.
The NPP’s policies highlight an incremental approach to recovery, including continued adherence to IMF loan conditions, bolstering local industries to improve resilience against global supply disruptions and encouraging foreign direct investment (FDI) to stimulate economic growth. On the other hand, the NDC has criticized the NPP’s handling of the economy, arguing that austerity measures imposed by the IMF are placing undue strain on average Ghanaians. Their proposal focuses more on welfare and job creation, with a promise to reduce taxes on essential goods and services and to include a stronger regulatory approach to ensure that trade policies protect local businesses from foreign competition.
By contrasting these approaches, voters are faced with a choice between the NPP’s continuity in stabilizing the economy with conservative spending and the NDC’s vision for an economic revival rooted in welfare expansion and protective trade policies. This economic divide could significantly shape electoral outcomes in 2024, as Ghanaians weigh their immediate needs against the NPP’s gradual path to economic recovery.
A major lesson for Ghanaian leaders is that there is growing disillusionment with the current leadership class. Unfortunately, the political elite have consistently blocked or disregarded popular and essential legal reforms needed to strengthen democratic governance. These unimplemented reforms, such as attempts to enhance transparency, constitutional amendments to ensure a more balanced distribution of power, and measures to protect the independence of the judiciary and Electoral Commission, are crucial for fostering public trust in democratic institutions. Without such reforms, the autonomy and credibility of the Electoral Commission remain vulnerable, raising serious questions about the future of Ghana’s democracy and its influence on democratic stability across Africa.
As Ghana bookends this year of elections for West Africa, it is hoped that rising citizen disillusionment with democracy is curbed with a free, fair and credible election. This will also hopefully reinforce the primacy of the electorate to parties as they prepare for whatever role they fill, as the party in power or an accountable opposition.
Peter Yohanna Kazahchiang is an Assistant Programmes Officer at the Centre for Democracy and Development