The Hidden Costs of Nigeria’s Growing Hunger Crisis
In Western fundraising adverts, the promise is often made that, for as little as £2 a day, one can save an African child from the grip of hunger. Yet, the reality on the ground tells a different story. Despite these well-meaning campaigns, hunger remains a persistent threat, with Nigeria on the brink of what could become a serious food security crisis.
A simple trip to the market reveals the severity of Nigeria’s escalating hunger crisis. Prices for essential foods like rice, bread, and vegetables have doubled within a year, making it increasingly difficult for households to put nutritious meals on the table. What were once occasional sacrifices have become daily battles for survival, as people skip meals and buy less to cope with the rising cost of living. For many families, this is not just an economic challenge—it is a crisis pushing them to the brink. Rising food prices, deepening poverty, and
ongoing conflict have converged over recent years to create a complex and severe emergency. An estimated 26.5 million Nigerians faced high levels of acute food insecurity between June and August 2024,
According to the United Nations’ 2023 Global Report on Food Crises, the situation has reached alarming proportions. For millions of Nigerians, securing enough food for a single meal each day has become increasingly difficult. Meanwhile, inflation has soared, “eroding purchasing power and pushing even middle-class families into poverty.”
The cost of living has risen for Nigerians, driven by the persistent increase in food prices. As of 2022, approximately 45 million people were undernourished, and the number of Nigerians living below the poverty line has now reached 84 million. Government’s removal of the fuel subsidy in 2023 intensified the problem, triggering a dramatic rise in prices that in turn led to higher costs for transporting goods. This sudden rise in transportation costs has effected the entire food supply chain, making even staple foods unaffordable for many households.
For families already struggling financially, the situation is becoming unbearable. The fear of hunger is no longer confined to the poor segments of the society; it has become a shared reality for many Nigerians, highlighting the severity and scale of the crisis.
The escalating food crisis in Nigeria has far-reaching implications that go beyond malnutrition and scarcity. It is driving social instability, worsening existing conflicts, and disrupting livelihoods on a massive scale. This situation meets the definition of a security crisis, which is undermining public safety, fuelling conflict, and disrupting social order. When basic needs such as food are not met, it can lead to widespread unrest, erode social cohesion, and create fertile ground for criminal activities.
INCREASING COMMUNITY DISPLACEMENT
Nigeria’s agricultural sector is heavily reliant on unpredictable weather patterns, with most farming activities depending on seasonal rains. Climate change has led to increased variability in rainfall, prolonged droughts, and more frequent flooding. In Northern Nigeria, desertification is spreading rapidly, shrinking available arable land and making traditional farming techniques less effective. In the southern regions, heavy and erratic rains have led to flooding, destroying crops and displacing entire farming communities. People affected lose not only their homes but also their primary sources of livelihood. The loss of agricultural output due to these floods disrupts local food supply chains.
These disruptions have a direct impact on food production, reducing the availability of staple crops like maize, millet, and rice. As yields decrease, food becomes scarce, pushing up prices and making it difficult for families to afford even basic necessities. This scarcity and rising cost of food can serve as the initial spark that ignites wider instability, especially in communities already suffering from economic hardship or insecurity. When farmers can no longer grow enough to sustain their families or sell in the local markets, they are forced to abandon their land and migrate to urban areas in search of new livelihoods.
People fleeing violence or seeking economic opportunities have been migrating to cities in increasing numbers, creating new challenges in already congested urban areas. This rapid migration has increased competition for scarce resources, leading to rising tensions and the potential for conflict within urban areas.
Many of those arriving in cities are young people, displaced from rural areas where hunger and food scarcity have disrupted their livelihoods. Once engaged in farming or agricultural work, they are now forced to abandon their homes due to crop failures. With limited employment opportunities and no support systems in place, they become marginalised and vulnerable. The desperation caused by hunger can push these youths toward criminal activities or make them easy targets for recruitment by armed groups, who exploit their
hunger as a means of control. Additionally, the lack of access to education, healthcare, and social services in urban areas worsens their plight, trapping them in a cycle of poverty and disenfranchisement.
The pressure on cities is not just a humanitarian issue; it poses a significant security risk as well. The influx of displaced persons into urban centres, coupled with the general sense of frustration over rising food prices and economic hardship, has the potential to create flashpoints for social unrest. Without targeted interventions, the migration of rural populations into cities could deepen existing socio-economic inequalities and trigger new forms of conflict.
AGGRAVATING EXISTING CONFLICTS
The effects of this crisis are being felt most acutely in conflict-affected regions, particularly in Northern Nigeria. Here, violence has disrupted agricultural activities and overwhelmed rural economies. Armed groups have repeatedly targeted farmers, forcing many off their land and into displacement. With around 3.6 million people already displaced, many farmers are no longer able to cultivate their fields, contributing to significant declines in food production. As a result, local food supplies have declined, and prices have surged, deepening the desperation of vulnerable communities.
The displacement of farmers has not only reduced food availability but also heightened insecurity. The absence of stable livelihoods has left many with no choice but to seek survival through any means available. In the worst-hit areas where local governance and security forces are often unable to provide adequate protection, communities are left to fend for themselves against armed groups. As the food crisis has deepened, so too has the insecurity that comes with it. In states like Borno, Yobe, Katsina, Zamfara, and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), there has been a sharp rise in kidnappings. What was once seen as a periodic crime has now become a lucrative business. With families struggling to put food on the table, they are now also forced to worry about the safety of their loved ones. Many are left with no choice but to pay ransoms, placing an additional financial burden on already strained households. This crisis has also disrupted local economies, as trade routes are threatened by banditry and extortion, further limiting access to essential goods and services. The cumulative effect is a widespread atmosphere of fear and instability that hinders any prospects for long-term recovery and development.
The rise in ransom payments has fuelled a vicious cycle. As long as kidnapping remains profitable, it will continue to be seen as an attractive option by those seeking quick financial gains. This situation is compounded by the lack of robust law enforcement agencies, particularly in rural areas, where security forces are often outmatched and outnumbered by criminal elements. For communities that were once focused on rebuilding from past conflicts, this resurgence of insecurity has undermined progress and left them trapped in a cycle of fear, poverty, and hunger.
What began as a humanitarian crisis is now escalating into a broader security threat. The convergence of hunger, poverty, and conflict is transforming Nigeria’s food crisis into a catalyst for instability. Violent attacks and economic hardship are feeding into one another, creating a situation where hunger fuels conflict, and conflict, in turn, deepens hunger. If left unchecked, this crisis could spiral into a prolonged period of social unrest, threatening national stability.
WAY FORWARD
Addressing Nigeria’s worsening food insecurity requires a comprehensive strategy that combines immediate relief with sustainable solutions to foster long-term resilience. Over the years, Nigeria has attempted several initiatives such as Lagos Food Bank Initiative, Action Against Hunger, etc. to alleviate hunger and stimulate agricultural development, with mixed results. To effectively combat the current crisis, it is essential to learn from such past efforts, address their shortcomings, and implement a multifaceted approach tailored to today’s complex realities.
One of the fundamental ways to tackle the food crisis is by stabilising prices and revitalising agricultural production, particularly in conflict-affected regions. In the past, Nigeria launched the Agriculture Transformation Agenda (ATA) between 2011 and 2015, which sought to position agriculture as a business rather than a developmental project. The program’s focus was to boost food production through support for smallholder farmers, enhanced use of fertilizers, and mechanisation. The program ultimately failed to achieve its long-term goals due to poor implementation, corruption, and lack of continuity across administrations. In the present context, a more robust approach is needed, particularly in areas ravaged by conflict. Targeted support must include the provision of seeds, fertilisers, adequate training and modern equipment to help farmers resume operations. Additionally, securing the supply chains through subsidies that reduce the high cost of transporting agricultural produce is critical. Without such support, farmers will continue to abandon their fields, further shrinking local food production and pushing prices even higher.
Another crucial intervention is the expansion of social safety nets to protect the most vulnerable households. The Nigerian government has initiated several social assistance programs in the past, including the National Social Investment Programme (NSIP) launched in 2016. The NSIP, which included initiatives such as the N-Power employment scheme and the Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) program, aimed to provide a buffer against poverty by offering direct financial support to low-income families. However, the initiative struggled with inconsistent funding, poor targeting of beneficiaries, and accusations of favouritism in beneficiary selection. Expanding cash transfer programs and food assistance will be essential to help families afford basic necessities during periods of extreme inflation. Such interventions need to prioritise rural communities, conflict-affected populations, and households headed by women, who are often excessively affected by economic shocks.
The growing nexus between hunger and insecurity cannot be ignored. In the past, initiatives like the Operation Safe Corridor program were launched to counter insurgency in the Northeast by offering amnesty and rehabilitation to former Boko Haram fighters. While the initiative aimed to reduce violence, its impact on rural security has been limited, as it did not adequately address the root causes of the conflict: poverty, hunger, and displacement. A more comprehensive strategy is required to restore stability in rural areas and create an environment where farming can resume. This involves deploying security forces to protect farmlands, ensuring the safety of farmers, and securing transportation routes. Moreover, there is a need for enhanced coordination between security agencies and community groups to prevent attacks and monitor early warning signs of potential conflict. Strengthening security around key agricultural zones would not only safeguard food production but also enable displaced populations to return to their land and rebuild their lives.
As hunger and conflict push more people out of rural areas, Nigeria’s cities are under increasing strain from the influx of displaced persons. Addressing the challenges of urban integration will require tailored urban planning interventions that focus on creating economic opportunities for displaced populations, particularly youth. Investments in vocational training and entrepreneurship programs could help transform the influx of young people into a resource rather than a burden. For example, youth employment initiatives could focus on
sectors like technology, construction, and agribusiness, providing viable alternatives to crime and reducing the risk of social unrest.
The current food crisis calls for a localised approach that empowers communities to take ownership of initiatives. Collaborating with local farmers’ cooperatives, civil society organisations, and private sector partners can help create a more resilient agricultural system. Furthermore, integrating technology for better monitoring and transparency can ensure that resources are directed where they are most needed. Implementing these strategies will require strong political will, transparency, and the active involvement of local communities. Only by learning from the past and building on what works can Nigeria overcome this crisis and lay the groundwork for a prosperous and food-secure future.
Titilayo Olaniyan is an Assistant Programme Officer at the Centre for Democracy and
Development