Five Things to Look Out for in the 2024 Edo Governorship Election

As the 2024 Edo State governorship election scheduled for 21 September approaches, the political atmosphere is rapidly intensifying, with many eyes on the factors that could influence the democratic exercise and shape the outcome. Beyond the candidates vying for the top office in the state, the election is expected to test the capacity of the electoral body to conduct a free, fair, and peaceful vote amid a backdrop of rising tensions over potential violence. Here are five critical things to watch out for as the election draws nearer.

Security and the Role of Law Enforcement Agencies

Security concerns are paramount in the 2024 Edo election, especially considering the trends of violence and cult-related clashes in the state. Edo State has long been plagued by cult-related violence, with Benin City, the state capital, serving as a focal point. Between 2021 and 2023, over 180 people were killed in cult-related violence, and this trend shows no signs of abating. In December 2023 alone, there was a surge in deaths related to cult clashes, and political violence has also escalated significantly, as highlighted by the July 2024 attack on the convoy of Philip Shaibu, Edo’s embattled deputy governor.

These concerns have sparked fear that cult groups might be mobilised to influence the process and outcome of the election, particularly in areas where they hold sway. The interplay between political interests and cult groups raises the potential for widespread violence, voter intimidation, and electoral manipulation. Whether security forces and political leaders can rein in these groups will likely determine voter turnout and confidence in the electoral process.

Another significant development in the pre-election period has been the ban on the Edo State Security Network from participating in election-related activities. This ban has raised questions about potential security gaps that might be exploited, as some groups previously linked to the security network could still exert influence during the polls. This places a spotlight on the role of the Nigeria Police Force, which has already come under scrutiny due to allegations of bias. A particularly notable event was the alleged rushed confirmation of the Inspector General of Police (IGP) for a full-term reappointment. This decision has sparked concerns about the political neutrality of the police, especially in light of accusations that they might favour certain political factions. In a state where political thuggery and cultism have often intersected, the impartiality of the police will be crucial to ensuring a peaceful and credible election. Even though the Police leadership has expressed commitment to ensuring a safe atmosphere during the poll, the question of whether the Nigerian law enforcement agencies will remain neutral and protect the integrity of the election, or exacerbate tensions, still lingers.

Two Major Candidates Shunning the Governorship Debate

A surprising and contentious development ahead of Saturday’s election is the decision by both the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Asue Ighodalo, and the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Monday Okpebholo, to shun the recently held governorship debate. The debate, organised by the Edo State Council of the Nigeria Union of Journalists (NUJ) in collaboration with the Nigeria Elections Debate Group (NEDG) and the Broadcasting Organisation of Nigeria (BON), was meant to provide a platform for voters to hear directly from the candidates about their visions and policies.

This refusal to partake in the debate has sparked public outcry, leading Hon. Olugbenga Edema, the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) candidate in Ondo State, to describe the action as an affront and disrespect to the electorate. By skipping the debate, these candidates have denied voters the chance to evaluate their positions on key issues facing the state.

This development raises questions about the level of engagement candidates are willing to have with the public and their commitment to transparency. It also fuels frustration among voters, who expect candidates to be accountable and open to public scrutiny. Such behaviour could lead to a backlash at the polls, as voters might feel neglected or disrespected by the major candidates.

PDP’s Refusal to Sign the Peace Accord

A major turning point in the pre-election period was the refusal of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to sign the peace accord. The peace accord, typically facilitated by the National Peace Committee, led by former Head of State, Rtd General Abdusalami Abubakar, is a symbolic pledge by political actors to promote a peaceful and fair election. The PDP’s refusal, citing concerns over violence allegedly orchestrated by the All Progressives Congress (APC), has added a layer of complexity to the pre-election atmosphere.

Governor Godwin Obaseki’s decision to have the PDP stay away from the peace agreement underscores the deep mistrust between the two major parties. The PDP claims that APC is employing federal influence to undermine their campaign and disrupt the election. The absence of a peace accord increases the likelihood of unchecked hostilities on election day, as one of the major players has openly rejected the truce.

The Role of Federal Influence and the INEC

A key accusation in the political narrative surrounding the 2024 Edo election is the alleged meddling of federal actors in the state’s political process. The PDP has claimed that the APC is leveraging its control of the federal government to tilt the election in its favour, citing the appointments of key officials such as the Commissioner of Police and the Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC) of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Both appointees are said to have connections to Nyesom Wike, the former Governor of Rivers State and current Minister of the Federal Capital Territory under the APC.

The neutrality of INEC and its ability to resist political influence will be essential in ensuring that the election reflects the will of Edo voters. With the spectre of federal influence looming large, the transparency and impartiality of INEC’s actions will be under intense scrutiny. Any perceived bias could further erode trust in the electoral process and further lead to post-election disputes.

Voter Turnout and the Risk of Low Participation

One of the most significant concerns ahead of the election is the potential for low voter turnout due to fears of violence and intimidation. With the trends of cult-related violence and political clashes, many voters may feel too unsafe to participate in the election. In past elections, ballot snatching, voter intimidation, and politically motivated attacks were not uncommon, but the level of violence recorded in Edo in 2024 poses a greater threat to the democratic process.

If voters are scared away from the polls, it could allow political factions with control over violent groups to influence the election’s outcome. This raises the risk of a skewed election result that does not accurately reflect the will of the people, further deepening political divisions and mistrust in the state.

Conclusively, as the 21 September 2024, governorship election approaches, Edo State stands at a crossroads. Security, political violence, federal influence, and the actions of INEC and law enforcement agencies will all play pivotal roles in determining the credibility of the election. These five factors will shape not only the immediate outcome of the poll but also the long-term political landscape of Edo. Whether the state can rise above these challenges to hold a peaceful, transparent, and credible election remains to be seen. Ultimately, the stakes are high, and the future of democratic governance in Edo depends on the actions taken by political leaders, security agencies, and the electorate in the coming days.

Raji Olatunji is a Misinformation Analyst at the Centre for Democracy and Development