ECOWAS’ Path to Supporting Inclusive Elections in Guinea-Bissau
Introduction
As the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) seeks to reinforce democratic governance in its member states, Guinea-Bissau represents a critical yet challenging case. The backdrop of political instability, historical coups, and current tensions makes the prospect of a successful legislative and presidential election a daunting yet essential task in Guinea-Bissau. With HE President Umaro Sissoco Embalo's perceived reluctance to fully align himself with ECOWAS, the organisation’s path forward must be both strategic and diplomatic.
A recent mission by a joint delegation from ECOWAS and United Nations Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS) to Guinea-Bissau to support national efforts toward peace and stability in the country highlighted the region’s complexities. The team engaged with various national stakeholders, from government authorities, political actors, election management bodies, to civil society representatives and international partners. This comprehensive approach aimed to gauge the political landscape and explore avenues for fostering dialogue and cooperation toward a successful electoral cycle and the promotion of peace, security, and stability in the country. However, the joint ECOWAS-UNOWAS delegation was compelled to leave Guinea-Bissau following threats to expel it by President Embalo. This is a stark reminder of the challenges that characterise external intervention in local politics.
Meanwhile, after the departure of the ECOWAS-UNOWAS delegation, President Embalo has set 30th November 2025 as the date for the country’s next presidential and legislative elections, a move he announced on 23rd February 2025—just days before the Supreme Court weighed in on the timeline of his mandate. The opposition insists that his term, which began in 2020, should have ended on 27th February 2025. But the Supreme Court ruled that he can remain in office until 4th September 2025, extending the political standoff. Embalo, for his part, confirmed in an interview with Jeune Afrique on 3rd March 2025 that he intends to seek a second term, setting up a high-stakes contest in 2025
As political tension continues to rise and shape Guinea-Bissau’s political landscape, mindfulness of the intricacies of its local governance and politics is essential for effective electoral support and intervention. To make concrete progress in this mission, ECOWAS will not only navigate the terrain with caution, but will underscore the importance of peace and inclusivity in the impending elections. It has become necessary for ECOWAS to consider exploring some peaceful and diplomatic approaches to engender thoughtful collaboration and support by all stakeholders going forward. This piece aims to explore the strategies at ECOWAS disposal to engender stability and inclusivity in the coming elections.
Historical Context of Guinea-Bissau”s Political Landscape
Guinea-Bissau gained independence from Portugal in 1974, but according to a 2024 country report, the early years were marked by political instability and conflict. The country has a semi-presidential political system, with a president serving as head of state and a prime minister as head of government. The government exercises executive power, while both the government and the National People’s Assembly hold legislative power. However, the system has often been plagued by authoritarian tendencies, with presidents exercising significant control over the government and opposition parties facing persecution. Since independence, Guinea-Bissau has experienced numerous coups, including four successful ones, and 17 attempted or alleged coups. This level of instability has grossly hindered the country’s democratic development and economic growth. In recent years, Guinea-Bissau has made some progress towards democratic consolidation, including the election of President Umaro Sissoco Embaló in 2019. However, Embaló’s presidency has been marked by growing authoritarianism, including the dissolution of parliament and persecution of opposition elements.
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has played a significant role in supporting Guinea-Bissau’s democratic development, including providing technical assistance and supporting the country’s electoral process. However, the country’s complex political landscape and history of instability pose significant challenges to ECOWAS’s efforts to support inclusive elections and democratic consolidation.
Local Politics and Governance in Guinea-Bissau
To effectively support inclusive elections, it is imperative to understand the unique political landscape of Guinea-Bissau. The country’s governance structure under the current dispensation is characterised by a fragile democracy, with frequent tensions between the executive and legislative branches, as well as the military’s influence. Political parties are often fragmented, and alliances can be fluid, complicating the electoral process. Moreover, issues such as corruption, lack of institutional capacity, and limited civil society engagement further exacerbate the challenges of democratic governance. Traditional power dynamics also play a significant role in the scheme of politics. Ethnic affiliation can impact political loyalty, and local actors often wield considerable influence over community decision-making. Thus, any approach being adopted to promote inclusive elections must be sensitive to these local dynamics, in a way that all segments and factions, including relegated groups, are given a voice in the unfolding electoral process. We recall, very sadly, the 2014 elections in Guinea-Bissau which came to be after several postponements, were marred by significant political turmoil, as tensions ran high following a period of instability and a military coup in 2012. The election saw the victory of José Mário Vaz, who promised to restore democratic governance. However, his presidency was challenged by political infighting and a lack of consensus within the government, leading to his dismissal in 2019 after a protracted power struggle. This chaotic backdrop laid the groundwork for the subsequent elections and the rise of the current president, Umaro Sissoco Embaló, who assumed office in February 2020 amid ongoing political instability and questions about the legitimacy of his mandate, reflecting the persistent challenges of governance in Guinea-Bissau. However, the transfer of power from Vaz to Embaló marked the first actual peaceful transfer of power in Guinea-Bissau’s history. Still, the conduct of the election and subsequent transfer of power was not without controversy.
Guinea-Bissau under President Umaro Sissoco Embaló
Since taking office in February 2020, President Umaro Sissoco Embaló has navigated a complex political landscape characterised by fragmentation and persistent instability. Although the country under his leadership has witnessed some relative stability away from the fragile situation, as well as the efforts to address governance challenges. However, concerns over his foot-dragging to conduct timely elections, as recommended by the Joint ECOWAS delegation, have emerged as a significant issue.
While ECOWAS on the one hand supports and pushes for adherence to the electoral timeframe to engender inclusivity and stability, on the other, the government’s justification for the delays has been marked by opacity and is being challenged by the opposition. Some political narratives have emphasised stability or security over electoral processes, and this might imply a preference for maintaining power rather than allowing for a democratic electoral timeline. Concerns have also been expressed about his visit to Russia, engagement with the military and specific political factions which could indicate a focus on consolidating power rather than enabling open elections. It has also been suggested that his hesitance to commit to a clear electoral schedule not only fuels public frustration but also undermines international confidence in his leadership.
Moreover, the political atmosphere has been characterised by tension and accusations of authoritarianism, as Embaló faces opposition claims of consolidating power. His refusal to align with ECOWAS’s electoral recommendations further complicates his administration's credibility and highlights the delicate balance between maintaining order and ensuring democratic legitimacy in Guinea-Bissau. As the nation grapples with these challenges, a credible and transparent electoral process remains imperative for achieving lasting peace and stability.
Guinea Bissau remains at a crossroads, and the potential for a political or electoral crisis remains as rife as it could undermine regional stability and the hard-won gains of ECOWAS in promoting democracy and peace. As tensions escalate, it is now paramount that all and sundry should uphold democratic processes and prevent a resurgence of conflict.
As ECOWAS marks its 50th anniversary, which also dangerously coincides with the complexities of the Sahel exit and the fragile situation in Guinea-Bissau, it is hoped that it will intensify its efforts and skillfully apply its time-tested diplomatic expertise and engagements, not only to avert further political crisis but also to ensure transparent electoral management and inclusive dialogue, so as to pave the way for a peaceful and fair electoral process—as a national and regional imperative and a befitting 50th anniversary gift to ECOWAS.
Geopolitical Undercurrents Guinea-Bissau Affairs
The geopolitical landscape is increasingly intertwined, as events in one region can have a significant impact on another. In the case of Guinea-Bissau, the unfolding event is making some sense, especially, with the current international dynamics, now involving countries like Russia and France, which can play insidious roles in the country’s future. For instance, the French operations in the Sahel and other areas highlight its commitment to maintaining influence in West Africa. This could manifest in various forms, such as supporting certain political factions, facilitating regional mediation efforts, or countering other foreign influences. Russia, on the other hand, has been reasserting its influence in Africa over the past decade, often through military partnerships and resource agreements. This could be a complex situation for Guinea-Bissau, as Russian involvement in the region typically aligns with a broader strategy of undercutting Western influence and establishing new alliances.
Overall, in the current state of international geopolitics, where alliances and rivalries shape engagement, Guinea-Bissau is a potential locus for influences that could amplify its existing challenges. As countries like Russia and France seek to expand or maintain their influence in Africa, the situation in Guinea-Bissau may continue to evolve, reflecting broader strategic interests that could either provide opportunities for stabilisation or exacerbate instability in the region.
ECOWAS Plausible Approaches to Engendering Peace
In what follows, seven key recommendations are outlined to guide ECOWAS in promoting peace, strengthening democratic processes, and ensuring inclusive governance in Guinea-Bissau at this critical juncture. These strategies emphasise dialogue, institutional support, media freedom, and diplomatic leverage—critical components in shaping a sustainable path toward political stability in the country.
Commence Dialogue with the Sitting President
The options for stability may include engaging in Constructive Dialogue with President Embalo, regardless of his reluctance to expressly support the joint ECOWAS and UNOWAS tactful push to schedule the legislative and presidential elections. There is a strong persuasion that initiating an open dialogue with the President and listening to his concerns and priorities could lay a foundation for the much-needed peaceful collaboration. ECOWAS may also wish to extend an olive branch with a partnership proposal that emphasises symbiotic objectives in political stability and democratic legitimacy. The joint ECOWAS delegation may consider leveraging the inclusion of such groups as political parties, civic groups, and community leaders – all of which are crucial for ensuring that the entire electorate is represented.
Facilitate a Broad-based Dialogue with Stakeholders
The joint ECOWAS delegation can also facilitate broad-based stakeholder interactive sessions to focus essentially on how to revisit and/or address recent electoral grievances, and establish an enduring and shared vision for the impending elections. Creating a sense of belonging, co-ownership, and empowering stakeholders over the election process, could be one of the cardinal objectives of the intended stakeholder engagement.
Lead a Capacity Building Program for the EMB
There is an urgent need to intensify support and reinforce the institutional capacity of the Electoral Management Body of Guinea-Bissau. ECOWAS may consider offering training assistance to the electoral officials, providing logistical support, and ensuring that transparency and accountability are entrenched as best practices in the electoral commission. As has been consistently underscored across countries in the subregion, promoting the integrity of the electoral process will build public confidence and encourage widespread voter participation.
Promote Media Freedom and educate the Electorate
Media freedom and an informed electorate are part of the critical yardstick to measure a democratic society. ECOWAS should therefore prepare to champion initiatives in that regard – to enhance media freedom and ensure diverse news coverage leading up to the elections. ECOWAS can better promote collaboration with local media outlets in the country to counter misinformation and encourage fair and just reporting, devoid of hate and divisive narratives.
Deploy Influential Regional leaders to engage President Embalo
ECOWAS can be more introspective and innovative by leveraging influential and respected regional leaders and personalities to engage with President Embalo and other key stakeholders in and out of government. This can help to bridge the yawning gaps between and among relevant parties in the ensuing mix-up, especially when the opportunity for dialogue to restore trust in the impending election has been lost.
Develop a Clear and workable Diplomatic Agenda
ECOWAS may urgently wish to consider developing an agenda that may culminate in clear diplomatic and economic commitments from the incumbent government in Guinea-Bissau aimed at creating a conducive environment for free and fair elections. This approach would require tactical handling in such a manner as to avoid further exacerbation of tensions but instead, pave the way for constructive engagement.
Insist on an Inclusive Election process
Regardless of concerns, ECOWAS should insist on prioritising inclusivity and stability in the conduct of legislative and presidential elections in Guinea-Bissau. To successfully push this across as a condition precedent to all concerned parties, the joint ECOWAS team must approach the situation with extra sensitivity and an unwavering commitment to democratic values. While the complexities of Guinea-Bissau's political landscape pose significant challenges, it is imperative to create an environment where all citizens feel represented and able to participate in the political process.
The joint ECOWAS and UNOWA’s role as a facilitative partner and arbiter in this regard can turn potential hindrances into opportunities to engender stability and democracy. We think that by carving out a pathway that matches the goals and aspirations of the regional body with the realities of local politics, the joint ECOWAS team can assist Guinea-Bissau attain meaningful electoral progress, and ultimately restore the place of voice, space and accountability in the democratic governance of Guinea-Bissau.
Beyond identified soft measures, several other options could be considered to cause compliance, including suspension of membership, economic sanctions, political pressure, deployment of election observation mission, and support for civil society. Military intervention is an extreme measure but permissible as a last resort.
As we look to the future of Guinea-Bissau with untainted optimism, the importance of collaboration, dialogue, and inclusivity cannot be exaggerated. ECOWAS must remain committed and maintain a strong hands-on interaction with all parties, to successfully navigate the underlying intricacies with determination, foresight, and respect for the aspirations of the good people of Guinea-Bissau.
Agathus Chibuike Mgbeahuruike is a development practitioner with over 15 years of experience in civil society governance. He has held key roles, including National Coordinator of the Transition Monitoring Group (TMG) and Resident Election Consultant for the National Democratic Institute (NDI). An alum of the IVLP (2010), he holds an M.Sc. in Political Science and International Relations from the University of Ibadan. Chibuike has contributed to numerous publications and played a key role in drafting Nigeria’s National Anti-Corruption Strategy. He is currently exploring Ph.D. research on democratic representation at the University of Amsterdam.