A Game of Numbers - The Data Game Ahead of Elections
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has released the final list of registered voters ahead of the 2023 elections. The data shows an overall increase in the number of registered voters, an expected outcome given the strength of the candidates on the ballot and the high level of citizen engagement in party primaries and the presidential townhalls which have been conducted in the run up to the elections. The data however, reveals more critical information, specifically as it relates to the role of technology, regional battle grounds, voter demographics and the role of insecurity.
BVAS Impact Voters registration as more citizens registered to vote.
Data gotten from the National Research Group (NRG) shows that 13,536,311 of the 31,746,490 accredited voters in the 2015 election, representing 42.6 percent, voted without biometric accreditation. The use of manual accreditation was particularly prevalent in the North West region, with major states such as Kano (1.3 million), Katsina (1 million) and Kaduna (800,000) recording large incidents of manual voter accreditation respectively. The highest number of incidents outside of these regions was in Ekiti State in the South West (165,000), followed by Rivers State in the South-South (158,000).
These numbers show a clear disparity in the number of manual voting between the North West and other zones in the country, and might be a key reason why the zone has recorded the highest voter turnout in the country over the last two election cycles. It is also why use of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) will be closely monitored to see if voter turnout patterns change in the coming cycle, especially since it no doubt has played in a role in dictating campaign strategies for the various parties.
The Dawn of a New Voting Monolith – The Youth
The largest age group in the coming elections are the youth, with 18-34 years olds constituting 39% (37.01 million) of the roughly 93.5 million registered voters – the highest of any age group. Similarly, in terms of occupational distribution, students constitute the largest category with 26.03 million (27.8 %). This trend follows from the 2019 elections, where 18-35 year olds constituted the highest percentage of voters with 51.11 per cent of total registered voters. The increased civic engagement ahead of the upcoming elections, as evidenced by most of the newly registered voters being in the 18-34 demographic, might help correct previous poor showings – only 46.3% of the age group voted in the 2019 elections.
North West to remain key battle grounds for elections
The North West has, over the last two election cycles, become a key battle ground due to its large population and high voter turnout. Ahead of the forthcoming elections, three of the states with the top five registered voters (Kano -2nd, Kaduna -3rd and Katsina -5th) are in the zone. It also marks the first election in 20 years without Buhari on the ballot, who has been the recipient of the zone’s support in previous elections. In his absence, there is a case to be made for Rabiu Kwankwaso, who also comes from the zone and has been able to known to attract an almost fanatical following among the masses. This could play a part in further disrupting the previously expected duopoly by the two major ruling parties.
North West to remain key battle grounds for elections
The North West has, over the last two election cycles, become a key battle ground due to its large population and high voter turnout. Ahead of the forthcoming elections, three of the states with the top five registered voters (Kano -2nd, Kaduna -3rd and Katsina -5th) are in the zone. It also marks the first election in 20 years without Buhari on the ballot, who has been the recipient of the zone’s support in previous elections. In his absence, there is a case to be made for Rabiu Kwankwaso, who also comes from the zone and has been able to known to attract an almost fanatical following among the masses. This could play a part in further disrupting the previously expected duopoly by the two major ruling parties.
Rise in influence of the G5 states?
The data shows a growing level of influence for the Integrity Group governors of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) – Abia, Benue, Enugu, Oyo and Rivers states – who have been involved in an ongoing rift with their party and the presidential nominee. Rivers has been a reliable voter bank for the PDP, especially since it had the highest voter turnout among states in the 2015 contest. Ahead of the coming polls, three of these states rank in the top ten for registered voters – Rivers (4), Oyo (6) and Benue (9). While this would ordinarily provide a stronger negotiating position for the G5, there is no guarantee that these states will have a high turnout to warrant stronger negotiation. In 2019, Benue (25) was the highest ranked of these states for voter turnout, with Oyo (26) close behind, but Enugu (34), Rivers (35) and Abia (36) near the bottom of the ranking. It remains to be seen if these states will increase their turnout and if other parties, and their nominees, will benefit from that increase.
Favoured Son Advantage?
Another major point to follow will be if we see a recurrence of a trend that has seen the home states of established frontrunner presidential candidates’ turnout emphatically for their ‘favoured sons’. In 2015, Bayelsa state was ranked 4th as many citizens came out to support PDP’s Goodluck Jonathan, while Katsina state was ranked 8th as it also turned out for APC’s Muhammadu Buhari’s. This trend continued in 2019, with Katsina rising to an impressive 2nd position as citizens supported the president’s bid for a second term, while Adamawa ranked 5th during Atiku’s bid for the presidency. This takes on a different dynamic in 2023, with four established frontrunners from different zones. While Lagos and Kano have historically ranked as the top two for registered voters, it has not necessarily translated to its voter turnout. This is why APC might count on Bola Tinubu’s popularity to ensure that Lagos overturns a pattern of consistently ranking last among all states for voter turnout, while NNPP will no doubt place a premium on Kano improving on its 18th place ranking, in voter turnout, to support Rabiu Kwankwaso. PDP, and Atiku, might hope for an improved showing from Adamawa to mirror Katsina’s support for Buhari, while Anambra will have to buck a trend of similarly historically low voter turnout to improve on its 30th placing in 2019.
Increased Voter Turnout expected but Insecurity projected to lower turnout.
A recurring pattern has been a converse relationship between increased voter registration and eventual voter turnout. Registered voters have increased with each electoral cycle but, since the high mark of 69% in 2003, there has been a consistent drop in the national average, with only 35% voting in 2019. It is why, ahead of the upcoming elections, insecurity has remained an area to focus on. In the run up to the 2023 elections, there have been 5 attacks on INEC offices in the South East region (Enugu and Imo states), whist Boko Haram and armed bandits continue to terrorise communities in the North-West and North East. The threat of insecurity is certainly as important as pre-election violence itself.
In the South-East, the Indigenous Peoples of Biafra (IPOB) have continuously called on citizens to stay at home, usually close to election cycles, threatening violence for those who defy the order. The Anambra state off-cycle election in 2021 has been regularly cited as an example of this, as IPOB consistently threated violence against those planning to vote in the elections but eventually relented on election day. Despite this, the mere threat of violence meant that voter turnout on the day was a mere 10%, which might lead to a less emphatic outcome during the national elections.
By all indications, the 2023 elections will be a tightly contested affair. The record numbers of registered voters show a high level of citizen engagement, particularly 18-35 year olds in the country, who have the potential to significantly impact on the outcome of the elections. There are several mitigating factors however, as insecurity and the threat of electoral violence continue to threaten voter turnout. Other key takeaways include the regional dynamics relating to the void left by Buhari in the North West and the potential for Kwankwaso to consolidate votes in the region. Similarly, the ability of each candidate to win their home states and the margin in which they do so may serve as a litmus test as to their strength in their respective regions. Furthermore, the use of BVAS may also have a suppressive effect on voter turnout in the North West as the region has historically recorded large numbers of manually accredited voters. Lastly, the rise in voter registrations in the G5 states may serve to increase the influence of their corresponding governors in the coming elections making whoever they decide to support, individually or as a group, critical.